Draft Watch: How good can Greg Oden be?
Chad Ford, ESPN
INDIANAPOLIS -- Greg Oden's been called many things: the next Tim Duncan, a future Hall of Famer, a dead ringer for Grandpa LeBron.
But "exciting" and "explosive" aren't usually the first words that come to mind. When we're talking about this year's draft, those adjectives are more commonly applied to Oden's primary competition for the No. 1 pick in the draft -- Texas forward Kevin Durant.
Oden is usually thought of as the big guy with the back-to-the-basket game, the guy who will be a stalwart on the defensive end of the floor. He's regarded as primarily a shot-blocker, a rebounder.
So as I walked into an Indiana gym that looks like a barn in the middle of a cornfield to see Oden, my expectations weren't that great.
I assumed Oden would dunk the ball. Show his improving post game. Maybe flex a little bit. And we'd all go home.
The big surprise
Brian Spurlock/US Presswire
Oden will soon be roaming the paint in an NBA arena near you.
Oden has been spending his afternoons at the St. Vincent Sports Performance Center to work on strength and conditioning.
When Oden walks through the door, he fills the door frame, briefly blocking out the light from the outside world. He is enormous.
Joakim Noah told me in Los Angeles that you always know when Oden is on the floor. He doesn't have to be doing much. His size changes everything.
Oden measures 6-foot-11½ in socks and 7-1 in shoes, and he weighs around 260. His wingspan is an impressive 7-5, and his standing reach nearly 9-3. Those measurements provide the biggest reason most scouts think Oden should be the No. 1 pick. In a league devoid of big, traditional centers -- Oden's numbers add up to a perfect 10.
Everything else is supposed to be gravy.
But when St. Vincent director Ralph Reiff warned that I was in for a surprise, he wasn't kidding.
Oden's agility, flexibility, balance and explosiveness are remarkable for a player his size. He's a 2 guard in a center's body.
Clearly Oden is more than a big stiff who's learned how to play basketball. He's an athlete who happens to be 7 feet tall.
In the span of an hour, there wasn't a drill point guard Mike Conley could do that Oden couldn't do. In the strength department, we'd expect that and more. But in terms of athleticism and agility, you have to see it to believe it.
Remember that ridiculous dunk he tried against Georgetown -- the one when he took off from a little inside the free-throw line? That type of play should be a staple of his NBA game.
Five weeks ago when he started workouts, Oden measured a 38-inch vertical jump with three steps. That's a number just below what guys like Tyrus Thomas and Rudy Gay produced last year. Since then, he's been working on his explosiveness every day, so that number might even improve by the time he's tested in Orlando.
Combine Oden's height, reach and jumping ability, and you have a guy who can touch the 12-3 mark on the backboard -- 2 feet, 3 inches above the rim.
All that and a handle
Oden's basketball training is being handled by former Nets assistant coach Ed Schilling of the Champions Academy. Schilling has coached in high school, at college (as an assistant at UMass and Memphis and as a head coach at Wright State) and as an assistant in the NBA. He ran Kobe Bryant's workout for the Nets when Bryant was coming into the league.
"I think I have a certain empathy with where these guys are right now," Schilling said. "I've coached where they were last year as high school players. I've coached where they are this year as college players. And I've coached where they'll be next year, the NBA. Each league produces its own set of challenges. I'm trying to get them to be able to meet the next one in the NBA."
Win McNamee/Getty Images
Mike Conley Jr.'s not the only Buckeye prospect with handle.
Schilling spends the first half of the workout doing dribbling drills involving two basketballs. They're the type of drills you expect point guards to excel at. But for big guys like Oden? It's usually more like a loose-ball drill, with the player chasing the basketballs around the gym.
Schilling starts the timer and goes. Conley looks amazing, with excellent speed and control as he moves through a series of drills that test both his left and right hands. Oden nearly matches him, though. He doesn't have the speed of Conley, but he has impressive control of the basketball.
Right hand. Left hand. Behind the back. Between the legs. Oden handles the ball with amazing dexterity for a big guy.
"No one is expecting the guy to bring the ball up the floor or run the offense," Schilling said. "But it does show what a great athlete the kid is. Many guards struggle with these drills. What he can do at his size is amazing."
From there, Schilling has Oden and company running full-court drills. They take the ball, weave through dummies, cross over and then finish with a dunk or layup. Then Oden sprints to the other end of the floor, posts up one of Schilling's assistants and finishes with a baby hook.
As they run the drill over and over again, we get our first chance to check out one of Oden's biggest weaknesses in college -- his stamina.
Oden explains that his wrist injury suffered last summer kept him from getting into playing shape until the end of the season.
"I don't really think people saw the real Greg Oden," he says. "I really just went out there and played the first chance I got. I didn't get time to really practice with the team or get my legs back. They needed me and I rushed back. It wasn't until the end of the season that I really felt like I was getting into the flow and had the legs I needed to help carry the team."
Oden and Schilling say the injury also gave people the wrong idea about Oden's skill level around the basket. He was finally cleared on Monday by doctors for the full range of motion in his right wrist.
"It's feeling good," Oden said. "It's not a hundred percent, but I can do most of the things I used to be able to do with it."
As the workout continues, Oden plants down low alongside Purdue's Carl Landry and works on a number of post moves around the basket. His hands are soft. His hook shot is smooth. And most everything Oden lobs up finds its way in the basket. While he's been working on a midrange jumper to increase his arsenal, it's his work down on the post that is most impressive.
"He really has great footwork," Schilling said. "I know people say he's raw, but his footwork is pretty advanced for a big guy. He has great balance and quickness and he knows where he is. He still needs work, but I think too many people jumped to conclusions about his basketball skill. Defense may be his main staple in the NBA, but he's pretty impressive offensively too."
Schilling runs the workout for almost two hours, and Oden, tired and soaked with sweat, finishes it.
"His stamina still isn't what it needs to be," Schilling admits. "But it's greatly improved. I think by the time of the draft, he'll be in great shape for the summer league."
Is Oden the real Mr. Upside?
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
There's a lot more to Greg Oden's game than dunking the ball.
For the most part, the soft-spoken Oden deflects most of my questions about the draft. He says he doesn't care who wins the lottery. Doesn't care if he goes No. 1. Doesn't care if he and Conley finally have to part ways after spending the last six years as teammates.
Which raises this question, a big one in the minds of many NBA scouts: Does Greg Oden care about basketball?
The workouts suggest that he does.
Like Yao Ming and LeBron James before him, Oden won't have to work out for teams. He doesn't have to prepare for a job interview like most other prospects. Even if he were holed up in a dorm somewhere watching DVDs all day, he would still go No. 1 or No. 2 in the draft.
Instead he's here every day, four to five days a week, working like crazy on his game.
"I don't have any hobbies," Oden says with a smile when I ask him what else he likes to do besides playing basketball. "I like to watch movies, I guess. Movies, basketball and sleep. That's it."
But is he ready for that to be his life?
According to the training and coaching staff, yes. Oden has shown them he's a dedicated worker, someone who goes nonstop. He carries six basketballs with him wherever he goes.
"He doesn't want to just be good at this," Schilling says. "He wants to be the best. I see no reason he can't be."
Sunday night, after I described Oden's workout to a respected NBA general manager who stands a pretty good chance at getting the No. 1 pick in Tuesday's lottery, the GM had four words for me:
"I told you so."
He continued, "Oden is not just a big guy. He's a big guy with great athleticism and skill. It's what I've been telling you all year. This guy is a lock as the No. 1 pick.
"If Kevin Durant had broken his wrist and come back way early with a cast on his shooting hand, I don't think he would've dominated the Big 12.
"We haven't seen the real Greg Oden yet. What we've seen is 50 percent. That's enough to make him the No. 1 pick.
"If we saw it all, we'd laugh about the Durant comparisons. Don't get me wrong, Durant can play. He may be great. But I'm taking Greg Oden. My guess is every GM in the league will too once they see him up close."
As someone who was more impressed with Durant's college play, I hate to admit it, but the GM may be right. I still have questions about Oden's motor, and I still wonder whether he loves the game like Durant does. I don't know for sure if those skills he shows in workouts will show up in NBA games.
The Durant-Oden debate usually supposes that Durant has the bigger "upside" and Oden is the "safer" pick.
But after watching Oden on Sunday, I have to say that his upside may be bigger than that of anyone else in the draft.
_________________________________________________
Thought I'd post this for you Zig.
Poll