Defensive ratings part 2

[ziggy]

In other words, team defense impacts how each player gets ranked, instead of straight on defense of the player. A guy can be ranked much lower using this scale then he might otherwise be if he plays in a system like, say, Sacramento's, where team defense is always the other guys job.

Stojakovich is considered one of the better King defenders, not that that is saying much, but he certainly gets no help from anyone else if his man beats him.

Jomal I would say it differently.  Those players who play team defense, and provide the help, and hence reduce the points scored by the other team, will be rated much higher.  Why?  Because when they are on the floor the +/- number will be much higher than when they are not on the floor.

Since Peja is at the bottom, what that means is that the +/- was low no matter who was on the floor with him.  When Peja was on the bench it improved.
That could be because Peja was a poor help defender or a poor man to man defender, or both.
 

[Guest_Randy]

Shandon Anderson PROVES that this rating doesn't work -- there is ZERO way that Anderson is one of the top defenders in the league.  And it makes a HUGE difference having great big men defenders behind you -- it allows you to cover more because the big men cover your mistakes.  It wasn't Lynch, Snow or McKie that covered for AI as much as it was Mutombo.  Without a quality big man defender in the middle it changes EVERYTHING!  

You can't create a formula that trule covers defense -- and you said so yourself:  

He gets a lot of steals, but steals are not measured in this.

The fact is that steals ARE an indication of defense.  

You can look at the list and determine that while this may give some indications of good defenders -- there are many that are out-of-place.  That may have more to do with teammates than it does the individual defender.  

The formula may be better than anything out there but it still doesn't cut it!  If you think it does, then you obviously think that Shandon Anderson is one of the best SF's in the league -- in that case, you are NUTS!!!

[Reality]

Shandon Anderson PROVES that this rating doesn't work --
You can't create a formula that trule covers defense --

Nor did the author intend it to.

"It has been interesting seeing the reaction to my list of best and worst big men defenders. This writer never claimed for a minute that these were THE definitive lists (in the exact right order) of defensive big men. That is not the nature of statistical evidence. (If we are honest with ourselves, we would realize that this is the nature of most non-statistical evidence as well.)

With statistical evidence we generally are painting with broad strokes because the results are rarely precise enough to distinguish a player rated #3 from one rated #7. That said, these results with a handful of exceptions, do tell us that the players in the "best" lists are better than average defenders and the players in the "worst" lists are not. Context does matter, but watching players who change teams it appears that context does not typically change a defender from an elite defender to an average one."

By Dan T. Rosenbaum
 

[Guest_Randy]

Thats right Randy, don't confuse the issue with facts, lets focus on opinions.

And that's exactly my point, Reality -- this ISN'T facts -- it's just a formula that has some HUGE holes in it when determining defense!!!

[rickotreat]

This is an effort to apply statitical metrics to something that is fairly difficult to quantify- detrmining the relative value of defenders.

I'd say it was better than a subjective view of a player, so at least it's a step in the right direction.

I'd have to drill down into the methodology a bit more to understand why the results came out as they did.

Although individauls are noted for their defense, primarily because you see them doing something on the floor,  this does not necessarilly translate into a good +- ratingfor the player.

The reason I though AI would be higher is because he scores so much.  His plus figure should be high, at least over the last season.  I have to agree with Derek's assesment of him as a defender. He doesn't stay in front of is man very well.

The thing is, defense is a team thing, not an individual thing.  Detroit is a great defensive team,  and IMO Tayshaun Prince does a lot of it.  I don't remember anyone lighting him up.

Payton has lost at least a step.  He used to be able to stay with Iverson and at least make him work.  Those days are over for Gary.

The Sixers are now a very different team from the one that went to the finals.  This team does not play defense nearly as well.  It was a real shame that Ratliff went down when he did.  That team used to manufacture points by forceing tunovers.  You could see that during normal play they would continually pull away from the team they were playing because the defense was giving them an extra bucket every 90 sec. or so.  When Mutumbo came in that changed.  Deke was not as effective as Ratliff was at disruting the other team.

Last years edition only had a few plays that were reminicent of that system.  Different players, a coach with a stupid defensive scheme.  If they were going to beat you it was by outscoring you, not stopping you from scoring.  

Having one or two great defenders doens't mean anything unless it translates into wins.  The biggest state for me is the differential between a team's average score and the average points they gave up.  The best teams allways had the best differential, essentially meaning that the team had the best plus/minus.

Brakeing it down by individauls is an interesting exercise, but IMO, the biggest influence on this is the teams defensive scheme.  Gotta go with Randy on this one.  

[ziggy]

Thats right Randy, don't confuse the issue with facts, lets focus on opinions.

And that's exactly my point, Reality -- this ISN'T facts -- it's just a formula that has some HUGE holes in it when determining defense!!!

In your opinion it has huge holes, so it can't fact based?
It is wrong because it doesn't support your opinions?  

Perhaps Randy, your opinions are the thing that is wrong.  No wait, that most cetrainly couldn't be the case, could it?

This system uses statistical measures of when player are and are not on the floor, and equalizes it based upon who else is on the floor with you.  If you have a great defensive big man behind you, and he is the one providing the great defense, THEN HE WILL GET THE CREDIT FOR THE DEFENSE, not the guard.  This is measured by the results when they play together and when they don't.  If their is a huge difference then THE GUARD DOESN'T get credit for the big guys defensive help THE BIG GUY DOES.

[Derek Bodner]

The fact is that steals ARE an indication of defense.

And in the respect it is rated, as someone whose steals prevent more points from being scored than they allow will have a better rating in this system.

[Joe Vancil]

Randy,

And it makes a HUGE difference having great big men defenders behind you -- it allows you to cover more because the big men cover your mistakes. It wasn't Lynch, Snow or McKie that covered for AI as much as it was Mutombo. Without a quality big man defender in the middle it changes EVERYTHING!

While somewhat accurate, this is also somewhat short-sighted.

What happens when a shot-blocker rotates to cover a man driving the lane?  Every point guard knows...look for the shot-blocker's man going to the front of the rim.  Draw-and-dish...one of the oldest tricks in the book.

Snow and McKie, but Lynch especially were the people who, when Iverson's man beat him, left THEIR man to go to MUTOMBO'S man to prevent the easy pass to him.  This is somewhat "unpredictable" behavior...the driver is left looking for a man who is NOT an obvious target, thereby further forcing him to take on the shot-blocker, or to make a difficult pass...to play "ugly" basketball.

In other words, if Hamilton beats Iverson, and Mutombo comes over to block, Hamilton should be looking for who?  Ben Wallace.  Except there's a problem.  Eric Snow is standing in between Wallace and the basket, reading the passing lane between Hamilton and Wallace.  It's immediately obvious that the open man is Billups.  BUT WHERE IS BILLUPS?  He won't be in the immediate area...it would clog the lane too much.  And is anyone in the passing lane between Hamilton and Billups?  Hamilton is forced to choose QUICKLY - and that's how mistakes are forced.

This is rotational defense, and it's the best defense you can use.  It's also the toughest defense to teach (witness our 2002 World Championship of Basketball team).  Rotational defense's weakness?  ISOLATION OFFENSE...the kind that has become popular in the NBA before starting to phase out the last couple of years.

Mutombo would be responsible for erasing the "mistakes" of a gambling Iverson, but without the rotational defenders, the opponent is still getting a lay-up.  That's why folks like Snow, McKie, and Lynch were so important defensively.

A side note:  This is also the reason I still say Gary Payton is the best defender I've ever seen at point guard.  NO ONE was more court-aware than Payton.  In his Seattle days under Karl, he would actually swing entirely across the court for rotational coverage...in the scenario earlier, if he were Iverson, the moment he got beat, he'd be headed toward Chauncey Billups the moment he saw Eric Snow leave Billups.
 

[ziggy]

The fact is that steals ARE an indication of defense.

And in the respect it is rated, as someone whose steals prevent more points from being scored than they allow will have a better rating in this system.

Derek is correct.  It measures both the effect of the steal, and also the effect of the attempted steal that doesn't result in a steal.  It does not count the steals, it measures the effects of steals.

[Skandery]

Small Forwards:

Shane Battier is a great defender.  Anyone who doesn't think so simply doesn't know defense.  He is rock-solid man-man, above average rotational defender and an awesome zone defender.  He is strong and his defensive slide technique is on par with the great ones, the likes of Bowen, McKey (Sea-Ind), B. Jones (Sixers) and Ehlo (Cavs days).  Statistically he averages about a block and about a steal a game, not a shabby S+B rating for a guy who barely plays 25 minutes, but statistics aren't where its at with this guy.

Trevor Ariza, Bruce Bowen, and Paul Pierce are all great defenders and I'm not surprised to see them on the list.  Ariza's energy on defense is quite refreshing when forced to behold the putrid sludge New York players offer on defense.  Pierce is a gifted athlete who uses his size on defense very well.  Bowen you can't say enough about.  

Miles and Anderson are the interesting ones.  I suspect Miles above average proficiency in defensive rebounding for a 3 skews this number a bit when you consider he is taking away second chance opportunites for the other team.  I would be interested to see where Q. Rich fell in either the 2 or the 3 based on his D. rebounding proficiency.  Anderson eight years ago I wouldn't argue, but now I just don't see him as anything more than slightly above average.  

On the worst list, the one I need to comment on is Wally Szczerbiak, this guy is absolutely, unequivocally, without a shadow of a doubt, a horrible defender.  BAD.  If I had a nickel for everytime this guy crossed his legs while trying to stay with a cutter, I could probably afford the instructional book "Defensive Slide for Dummies" and the overnight FEDEX charge to ship it to poor poor Wally.

Harpring and Nailon are bruisers, which is a very different thing from good defenders.  I wouldn't be surprised if the excess shooting fouls going to the other team when these two are in influences the +/- ratings.

Shooting Guards:

Allen, Iquodala, Smith, and G. Wallace don't surprise me one bit.  I would've thought Iquodala would beat Allen but then again he plays a ton more minutes than Tony.  Smith is a shot blocker and a shot CHANGER, I would be a lot more confidant in being very agressive with a guy like this behind me.  Wallace is relentless and physically overbearing at the 2, if you want to score on him you're going to need a pick.  

Ginobili always has been and always will be a defensive spark plug, an unknown, not truly sound or fundamental but generally very disruptive.  Gordon is a shocker.  And for McKie and Jones to still make the list is a testament, neither of those guys is a quarter the defender they used to be.    

On the worst list, Bell is the only one that surprised me.  Sprewell has lost what little motivation he had on D and the rest are a pretty pathetic bunch with Redd sitting on the throne of the Kingdom of Pathetic defenders.  With athletic talents like Redd and Davis, I think they simply don't have the desire.

Point Guards:

Banks, Duhon, and Kidd.  No-brainers.  Duhon has been a defensive stalwart since his Duke days and has incredible defensive awareness.  If I didn't know better, I'd swear he graduated from the George Karl School of Press Rotation.  Banks intensity on defense end to end is a treat to watch.  Yes Genghis, Banks is the better defender of the two PGs in Boston.  The scary thing is his ranking is probably lower than it should be, because the majority of the few minutes he plays are usually alongside great defenders Tony Allen and Paul Pierce.  Kidd: great defensive rebounder, great man-man defender, disruptor (his steals lead to points), and IMHO the best PG defender in the league.  

Eric Snow at this point in his career is a complete surprise and while I do acknowledge Watson's defensive prowess I would've thought being undersized would knock him down the ranking a bit more.

On the worst list my first thought is Leandro is mcuh lower than I would have thought but he does share a quality with pretty much every player on this list.  SMALL.  This tells me NBA coaches are quicker to take advantage of the PG mismatches and slower to adjust to them.  This explains the recent relative success of big point guards the last couple decades (Mark Jackson, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Magic, Penny, Dennis Johnson, etc.)  

Very interesting list, a few surprises but on the overall I thought it was quite accurate.  Thanks for posting Zig-meister.