Messages

46

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 04, 2009, 01:09:56 PM »

It is going to be very interesting, do the Sixers try to wait out the amrket on guys like Miller and see them drop their demands, or do other teams start caving and suddenly there is no one left to be had.  A difficult line to walk for sure.

47

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 04, 2009, 08:46:35 AM »

Apparently the offer to Bibby was for just one year, an attempt to grab a guy on the cheap as a stop gap.  This tells me they view Holiday as the starter sooner rather than later, possibly in his second season, although they could always re-sign thier stop gap guy or grab another vet on a one year contract if he's not ready until his third year.

I really don't want them to rely on Lou as the starting PG, at all.

48

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 03, 2009, 10:39:29 AM »

Does anyone have interest in looking at what it might cost to sign Von Wafer. The guy is athletic, only 23 and can shoot the three from the SG position.  Not a great defender or passer yet, but a guy who seems to be improving year by year and it still very young.  Hollinger thinks he has the potential to eventually start at the 2, although that may be a stretch, at least on a good team.

He is unrestricted and a better shooter than Carney who has been discussed as a possible signing this summer.  Wafer intrigues me if he can be had for the right price.

49

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 03, 2009, 01:02:56 AM »

Exactly TK, moving Brand now would be nearly impossible and if posible, selling beyond low.  This draft was weak on bigs and so is the current FA class, especially with Boozer not opting out.

Wait to see how the team develops in the first half of the year.  Watch these things primarily:

1.  Does Iggy thrive in the new offense?
2.  Does Thad play at the level he did down the stretch last year and become a consistent 20+ ppg scorer?
3.  How fast do Speights and Smith develop?
4.  Can Iggy and Thad co-exist at the 2-3 positions, with each splitting only some time at other positions?

If all of these things develop very quickly, then the team is ready for rapidly rising and a healthy Brand should be kept, or traded only to fill an immediate need at PG or C.

If these things are taking a while to develop, then wait for Holiday to develop with them and move Brand if he comes back healthy and productive, trying to get both talent and cap flexibility.  Unless the team is making rapid improvements in the young core (not counting Holiday, that is too much to expect), then Brand is a luxury now and an albatross later.  If the team develops more quickly than expected, try like heck to solidify the PG position now and go for it.

50

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 02, 2009, 01:31:45 PM »

Gortat seems to be in big demand and would not come here unless we cleared playing time by moving a big, IMO.  He is quite likely to get overpaid this summer.

Jack is a restricted FA and outplayed TJ Ford for Indy last year.  Ford may be the more available one.

Iverson - no freaking way, been there, done that, end of story.

Why would Boston want Miller and where would we play Davis, who is a guy you have to worry about regressing once he gets a bigger, long term contract?

I agree with TK, Holiday is at least a 2 year project as a starter, should be up to a 15-20 mpg role before the year is out though.  We need a starting PG to replace Miller, and Lou simply has none of the necessary skills to play the position, even in the PO.

As bad as Green and Smmy's contract were on the surface, the fact that Sammy has a big trade kicker and Green has an ETO (which he will never exercise, but still why give it to him) is what really blows me away.  Like either of these guys had any real leverage to begin with.  BK could go to an auction by himself and there would still be active bids and raises on every item, he could never help bidding against himself.

51

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 02, 2009, 09:31:38 AM »

Blake can't play.  If that's all we can get, I'd stay with Miller.

It is not like we can just say that, Miller is unrestricted, so he decides where he goes.  The team does not want to give him more than two years and they would be lunatics if they give him a three year or longer deal.  For two years at the right number I am fine with keeping Miller. 

Blake can play, although he is more of a complimentary, quality back-up level PG.  He is a good shooter from distance, careful with the ball and no worse defensively than Miller.  Not much of a threat to drive to the hoop, but if Holiday develops quickly, he is also less likely to bitch about accepting a more limited role.  Plus he is cheaper, giving them some room to acquire another shooter.

52

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 02, 2009, 12:45:27 AM »

If we can get Blake, a second rounder and a decent sized trade exemption I would be fine with it.  That trade exemption could be very valuable in the current NBA economy.  Find a team that wants to dump a decent SG with two years left on their deal because the team wants to get under the tax or to enter the FA derby next summer, or both, and you can probably get them to toss in a pick, heavily protected first or a second.

Similar to what we did to pay Minny to take Booth and Carney last year.  If not, we still have some room under the cap to use at least part of the MLE for another shooter or can take back a little more salary (subject to trade limitations of 25%) if we actually manage to move Sammy.

OT: The Griz just traded for Zach Randolph I hear, wow, that is one awfully badly run franchise, oh wait, they dealt with the Clippers, make that two awfully badly run franchises.

53

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: July 01, 2009, 04:18:41 PM »

Will someone pull a Phillies (the Ibanez signing) and overpay for a role player before the market is set?  I doubt it.  The NBA is much better at collusion.

Gortat and Villanueva are your best candidates for this.  I think what you will see a lot of is overuse of the MLE by contending teams.  If the Sixers do not S&T Miller or re-sign him for two years or less at the right number, then they should be patient. I think there will be a lot of decent players looking for jobs/deals for a while.  We might be able to get two guys with the MLE, since I believe you can split it.

BTW, RealGM has some scary stupid people on it right now.

54

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: June 30, 2009, 07:22:52 PM »

I like the Blazers deal... but I'm not sure Outlaw is well suited to the P.O.

Hollinger from last year on Outlaw, note he did more than double his three point shooting output this year as Hollinger suggested he should (89 three's hit at a 38% clip):

2007-08 season: It was a breakout year for Outlaw, who established himself as one of the league's top bench scorers by showcasing a deadly midrange jumper and hit several clutch shots for Portland; the only reason his PER didn't rise more was because of a big drop in his rates of blocks and steals, which obviously is unrelated to his offensive breakout.

Outlaw relied on the J as much as any player in basketball, with nearly half his attempts on the season being long two-pointers. In fact, the only players to attempt more midrange jumpers than Outlaw were Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady (see Marvin Williams' comment). That's the entire list. And as a proportion of total shot attempts, Outlaw blew those two guys away.

The benefit to this approach was it allowed Outlaw to create shots without turning the ball over -- he was sixth among small forwards in usage rate and 14th in turnover ratio. The drawbacks, however, were twofold. First, those aren't high-percentage looks, as his TS% of 49.9 reveals. Second, he wasn't creating shots for anybody else, finishing with the fifth worst assist ratio at his position.

One other positive for Outlaw was an increase in rebound rate; with his hops he should have been doing better on the glass and finally blossomed last year, moving into the top third of small forwards.

Scouting report: Defensively Outlaw's length is an advantage, but he isn't terribly coordinated and lacks strength. Part of the reason his blocks and steals went down last year was because he gambled less and made defenders shoot over him; that's why his fouls went down, too. He still has a way to go at this end, but he was definitely an improved product.

Offensively, Outlaw likes to get the ball out high and shoot a 3-point jumper off the dribble. Off the catch, he'll often shoot with one foot just over the 3-point line, a shot he should probably convert into a 3-pointer in future seasons. When he drives he'll usually start out right, and then either spin back left for a jumper, cross to his left for a step-back jumper, or just rise up and shoot the thing right where he is.

Because Outlaw is 6-foot-9 and can leap he can get his jumper off against anyone, so it really just becomes a make-or-miss proposition -- this is why he's so deadly in late-clock situations, because he can always get a decent shot away. His stroke has a line-drive trajectory, however, and he tends to run hot and cold.

2008-09 outlook: Outlaw will again be the go-to guy for the second unit, which is a bit odd since he's clearly better than the guy starting ahead of him. But he also seems to be clamoring for more touches and shots, and that would create some bad feng shui if he was sharing the court with Brandon Roy and Greg Oden all the time.

As a result his playing time is unlikely to change much from a year ago, and he might get fewer shots. The challenge will be to either improve his midrange J or get to the basket more, so that his TS% can finally get into the mid-50s range where most good scorers reside.

He actually sounds like a decent fit for the PO with his jumper working and three point range now.  More of a finisher/shooter than passer.

55

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: The Sixers free agency thread.

« on: June 30, 2009, 03:02:14 PM »

We need to add more shooting, athleticism and a PG in FA.  Miller is as good as gone, and we can't use more than the MLE and other exceptions unless we use him in a S&T deal.  The proposed S&T of Miller for Blake and Outlaw, which popped up at the deadline earlier this year, makes so much sense that it hurts.

No contracts for anyone longer than two years.  Try to move Sammy and/or WG for anything more useful or more tradable down the road.  A couple of vet FA signings and maybe a rookie FA.  Not exciting, but that plus already adding Kapono and Holiday would be a success in my opinion, and we essentially get two nig men back taht we didn't have for most or all of last year in Jason Smith and Brand.

56

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: UDFA/Summer League Roster Discussion

« on: June 28, 2009, 10:11:10 PM »

Agreed.  Top to bottom this had to be the weakest center draft I can ever remember.  Usually there is a nice sprinkling of possible solid back-up types in the late first to early second round, but this year was pathetic.  I guess the cycle swung pretty fully from last year's draft that was chock fill of centers and good sized PF's.

57

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Sixers select Jrue Holiday at #17

« on: June 28, 2009, 04:57:11 PM »

Thanks, Derek.  That was a good read.   

Quite right, and an excellent explanation for the uninformed.  Holiday really was a full tier ahead of the other options at PG when the Sixers turn came up.  I love taht this team keeps picking high character guys, even Speights last year was not a character (i.e. trouble maker concern) issue guy, as much as ahe was/is a guy who simpy needs to be pushed to realize how good he can be.

58

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Sixers select Jrue Holiday at #17

« on: June 26, 2009, 09:20:56 AM »

Bill Simmons does not like the Holiday pick, you can sleep easy now Derek.  The world is right once again.  The Sixers are building a great young core of talent.  Do not trade Brand now, but get him back and prop up his offensive numbers for half a season in the PO and move him for some value to a team that needs him at or before the deadline.  The near total lack of quality bigs in this draft should make him more valuable if he comes back with anything left in the tank this year.

59

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Sixers select Jrue Holiday at #17

« on: June 26, 2009, 08:16:16 AM »

A point guard with size and lock down defensive skills, plus a lot of potential in other areas, at 17 we could not possibly have done better.  I think D-Bods hit his likely development timeline right on the head.  I stil hope they do not try running Lou at PG as a starter this year, he is what he is and that is not a PG, not even in the PO.

60

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Sixers select Jrue Holiday at #17

« on: June 26, 2009, 06:34:46 AM »

FoxSports take on the Sixers and Holiday:

With Andre Miller's status up in the air for the 76ers, Holiday was a no-brainer at 17. Holiday is a bit of a tweener, not exactly a point guard or a shooting guard, but he is young enough (just turned 19) to learn the position and become their future point guard. How quickly he will help the 76ers is something that will be figured out, but Philly will still most likely try to re-sign the veteran Miller because it would be asking too much to hand the reigns over the Holiday so early in his career. He had inconsistencies at UCLA as a freshman, but showed enough talent to be drafted in the first round. After a season of grooming or two, Holiday could be one of the best players to come out of this draft when all said and done.