PhillyArena Forums
PhillyArena Community => Philadelphia 76ers => Topic started by: Derek Bodner on July 17, 2008, 07:06:24 PM
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I really do.
It's a testament to this core that they have that they can compete. After they're done wasting Utley/Rollins/Howards/Hamels prime, they'll be the laughing stock again, as they give away all minor league talent for middling (at best) players.
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So...tell us how you really feel about the blanton deal :)
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It's amazing. Almost every Phillies fan hates this deal and almost everybody else thinks this is a good deal for the Phillies.
I'm reserving judgement until October.
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blanton's stats the last 3 years away from McAfee Coliseum (a pretty good pitchers park):
2006: 5.12 ERA, .318 BAA, 1.64 WHIP
2007: 5.11 ERA, .304 BAA, 1.43 WHIP
2008: 5.73 ERA, .285 BAA, 1.45 WHIP
HE STINKS
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It's amazing. Almost every Phillies fan hates this deal and almost everybody else thinks this is a good deal for the Phillies.
I'm reserving judgement until October.
Blanton has pitched just as well as Adam Eaton this year (equivalent ERA+ of 77)...Blanton isn't even league average and that's WITH the help of his home stadium, he stinks on the road, and he's a fly ball pitcher, AND the phils gave up the NUMBER ONE prospect in their system (in addition to other prospects who weren't trash) for this fat tub of goo who is adam eaton part two.
And don't bring up cardenas didn't have a position, it's too early to worry about that and he had more value than that.
It's a bad trade....unless blanton sucddenly believes he's rich harden and leanrs how to throw ground balls
Per usual billy beane violates a befuddled GM
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Dude, I tried posting on PhilaPhans about the phillies.
That site is HORRIBLE. Far worse than RealGM. Talk about a mistake wasting my time.
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Dude, I tried posting on PhilaPhans about the phillies.
That site is HORRIBLE. Far worse than RealGM. Talk about a mistake wasting my time.
Yeah, but they banned me, so realgm and philaphans have that in common :)
Just go to backshegoes.com if you want good phillies talk
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Dude, I tried posting on PhilaPhans about the phillies.
That site is HORRIBLE. Far worse than RealGM. Talk about a mistake wasting my time.
it used to be a decent place to post for baseball. Not so much any more. It is a great place to join a clique or be insulted, kind of like high school without the good parts.
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It's really difficult being a Phillies fan.
They rope you onto the bandwagon, and then.... well, we know the rest.
The Mets are surpassing our boys before our very eyes. The mental edge shifted when they took 3 of 4 in Citizens Bank Park. That was a god-awful series. The worst thing is, I thought the Phils outplayed the Mets over those 4 days.... Yet they had nothing to show for it.... Letting the Mets steal 3 of 4 was the beginning of the end.
I predict a slow, sad demise this season... Not for nothing, but Mike Pelfrey is pitching ridiculously well....
Johan - Hamels
Pedro - Kendrick
Maine - Myers
Pelfrey - Moyer
Perez - Blanton
advantage......... Mets. God, I despise the Mets. Imagine experiencing this whole decline in Flushing. Yes, Flushing, NY is where I reside... I can ride my bike to Shea.... Forced to listen to the fan 660 every night and deal with these dregs of society, drooling over their overpaid, underachievers.
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Why are people ignoring that the offense seems to have started crapping the bed as well...at home and on the road...
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It's amazing. Almost every Phillies fan hates this deal and almost everybody else thinks this is a good deal for the Phillies.
I'm reserving judgement until October.
I've never seen Blanton pitch, so I will do the same. However, whether you go with Blanton or Happ, you still don't have the pitching that will win you a playoff series, so I would rather just go with Happ in the rotation since he wouldn't cost us any prospects. We will clearly need our hitting to carry us.
Nonetheless, people hated the Lidle, Moyer, and Lohse trades, and while they weren't top-of-the-rotation guys, they provided good starting pitching. Hopefully, Blanton will give us at least what we got from Lohse last season.
Also, I read that PhillyChuck had Outman as a top prospect last year, and this year he apparently was in the bullpen. What happen to him?
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The phillies happened to him.
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I said this team was in trouble a couple of months ago, consistent hitting and pitching was my main problem then, now it just seems like we have a dog dumb management. Gillick can't retire fast enough.
However, I disagree that Cardenas is our best prospect, I think Marson has taken that spot. But still, giving up Cardenas for a career 4.25 ERA pitcher (and declining) is really horrible.
Maybe he'll pull a Lidge?
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However, I disagree that Cardenas is our best prospect, I think Marson has taken that spot. But still, giving up Cardenas for a career 4.25 ERA pitcher (and declining) is really horrible.
ONE of the best...and you have to factor in age, cardenas might be a top 30 prospect by the end of the season, not just in the phillies system but in all of the minors...
When Gillick retires it won't get any better, don't kid yourself...amaro is an idiot too
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Cardenas was top 3 no doubt IMO. Marson, Carrasco and Cardenas were my top 3. I put Donald right behind them, followed by Golson and Bastardo.
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DOnald is the short stop right?
The short stop that that could probably play well enough to replace the pitiful bats the phils have had since scott rolen but the phils have some bassackwards perceptoin of what a 3rd baseman should be? There's a quote from an online chat out there about why donald doesn't get moved to third that is downright ridiculous
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Cardenas and Outman were 2/4 respectively in the phils system pre season according to baseball america, that was before the phils messed with outman and the emergence of the catcher (but one season emergence is always something to be wary of)
So two of the top 5 prospects pre season in the phils system traded for adam eaton jr...thrilling
There's also an uncomfirmed rumor that the A's first wanted Golson but the phils wouldn't discuss golson, so they moved on to cardenas.
If true, the entire front office should be shot
Meanwhile, apparently Blanton will replace Adam Eaton in the Phillies' rotation, or at least that's what every Phillies fan must be hoping. Really, it's sort of amazing that Eaton's been allowed to pitch for as long as he has. As a rookie eight years ago, Eaton went 7-4 with a 4.13 ERA. Since then he's never actually been good, and most of the time he's not even been adequate. Since signing his three-year, $24.5 million contract prior to 2007, he's 13-18 with a 6.06 ERA.
That's right: three-year contract. The Phillies owe Eaton another $9 million after this season, which does make releasing him now both embarrassing and (thus) difficult. Still, it probably must be done. Sunk costs and all that. Because while Blanton might have been the A's worst starter, he's now one of the Phillies' best.
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I wouldn't have traded either Golson or Cardenas for Blanton, and I'm not even a huge Golson fan. IMO Outman and Spencer were fair enough value.
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Outman is a better pitching prospect than golson is - if the rumor is true it's just a good example of how the phils over value the toolsy guys...and you can't ALWAYS trade them to ed wade for brad lidge
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So....
are we seriously going to pass on this Holiday / Fuentes trade? (Victorino, Carasco, Lou Marson)
Wowwww. Even if Fuentes opts out, ummmm.... we're talking about Matt Holiday.
Werth
J.Roll
Utley
Holiday
Howard
Burrell
Feliz
Coste
Yea, i'll take my chances with that... Lol.
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Wowwww. Even if Fuentes opts out, ummmm.... we're talking about Matt Holiday.
Matt Holliday, throughout his career, has been a mediocre player outside of Coors Field. His career splits:
Home: .363 avg, 1.085 OPS, 1 hr every 15.5 at bats
Away: .277 avg, .790 OPS, 1 hr every 30.7 at bats
I don't think I'd mortgage the farm on him.
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Personally, I'm glad this trade flopped
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The just need less day games, that's all
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2008/7/21/575767/aha
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Wowwww. Even if Fuentes opts out, ummmm.... we're talking about Matt Holiday.
Matt Holliday, throughout his career, has been a mediocre player outside of Coors Field. His career splits:
Home: .363 avg, 1.085 OPS, 1 hr every 15.5 at bats
Away: .277 avg, .790 OPS, 1 hr every 30.7 at bats
I don't think I'd mortgage the farm on him.
I disagree. Yes, Matt Holliday has been much better in Coors that anywhere else, but he'd go from Coors to possibly an even better hitters park. I don't see his overall #'s going down much. I'm sure some of our guys have similar splits playing here, but would not devalue them because of that if we were trading them. Utley for one has put up much better power #'s here over the last couple years.
I don't see any deal where we trade some of our minor league guys are "mortaging the farm". Face it, our top prospects aren't even that good and this rumor didn't even have us trading away some of the best ones we do have.
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but he'd go from Coors to possibly an even better hitters park
There are actual numbers out there that prove this statement false.
I don't see any deal where we trade some of our minor league guys are "mortaging the farm". Face it, our top prospects aren't even that good and this rumor didn't even have us trading away some of the best ones we do have.
Carrasco and marson are the two top prospects in the phillies organization right now, marson is probably one of the 3 best catching prospects in the game.
If you keep stripping your minor league system on middling players who are going to leave, your system will not improve.
Hallladys 'benefit' is only for a part of this season, then he's just repalcing pat burrell, and I like pat burrell better and is the phillies think GREG FRACKING GOLSON is going to be a quality Major League centerfielder, we should all just give up now cause this organization is run by total douches with no clue
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There are actual numbers out there that prove this statement false.
Well, fact is this is an elite hitters park. more favorable than Coors in '05, '06 and '07 in HR rate. Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.
Also, hearing someone say they would prefer Burrell to Holliday makes me question someone knowledge.
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Also, hearing someone say they would prefer Burrell to Holliday makes me question someone knowledge.
This year. BTW - an excellent WIP influenced statement by the way...burrell is having an all star year this year.
NExt year all halladay does is replace burrell, and i suppose we should ignore that fact that there are 81 games NOT in philadlephia, the phillies would be stripping their mediocre but getting better farm system and still not fixing the PROBLEMS.
But yeah, it'd make a big splash so WIP folks would be impressed
Pitching wins in the playoffs
Blaton doesn't solve the issue.
Halladay Fuentes doesn't solve the issue.
Gillick is leaving town after this season I wouldn't let him make ANY more trades cause he doesn't have to worry about the long term implications.
People smarter than me have already expressed why the halladay move wouldn't help the phils win the title this year. two phillie oriented websites out there than have already broken iit down and paid attention to things like park factors (which is more than just home runs) and the fact that halladay gets a big coors field help.
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I disagree. Yes, Matt Holliday has been much better in Coors that anywhere else, but he'd go from Coors to possibly an even better hitters park.
What!?!?!?
This myth that Citizens Bank Park is one of the top hitters parks has got to stop.
First, ESPN's park factor. Updated daily.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
The stat is defined on the page. Citizens Bank Park is a middle of the pack pitchers ballpark. It's actually in the lower half of the league (16 out of 30) in terms of hitters parks. A better pitchers park than hitters park!
(last year Citizens Bank Park was 14th out of 30).
Ok, need more evidence? Let's look at individual players. If Citizens Bank Park is such a great hitters park, it would make sense that our starting pitchers have a better ERA on the road, and our hitters have better numbers at home:
Hamels: 2.79 ERA at home, 3.53 on the road.
Myers: 3.81 at home, 8.18 on the road
Kendrick: 4.69 at home, 5.02 on the road.
Eaton does have a higher ERA at home, but he actually gives up more home runs on the road than at home (1 hr every 11.5 IP at home, 1 home run every 6 on the road.
Batters (home run rate):
Howard: 1 hr every 12.2 at bats at home, 1 every 13 at bats on the road.
Burrell: 1 hr every 20.8 at bats at home, 1 every 9.2 on the road
Utley: 1 every 11 at bats at home, 1 every 23 on the road (for what it's worth, Utley does have a higher OPS on the road).
There is no evidence to point to Citizens Bank Park to be one of the top hitters parks in the game. It actually looks fairly well balanced. 3 of our starting 5 gives up less runs at home than on the road. Of our big 3 hitters, 1 hits pretty much the same amount of home runs at home vs on the road (Howard), one hits considerably more on the road (Burrell), and one hits considerably more at home (Utley).
I would say CBP favors left handed pull hitters with a short porch in right field, but pretty unforgiving in left and center (which becomes even more troublesome for the right handed hitting Holliday). It was a slight hitters park the first season, but the changes have leveled it out to where it's about average. There's no way you can argue that CBP is anywhere near the hitters haven Coors field is, which has been a hitters park since its exception with (2nd in park factor in 2001, 1st in 2002, 4th in 2003, 1st in 2004, 1st in 2005, 2nd in 2006, 3rd in 2007, 6th in 2008.
Seriously, there's just no way.
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Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.
Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs.
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our top prospects aren't even that good and this rumor didn't even have us trading away some of the best ones we do have.
Carrasco is our best pitching prospect. Marson is our best position player prospcet. How is that not trading away some of our best ones?
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Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.
Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs.
It seems all that matters is the home runs :)
BTW - Fuentes isn't any better than romero this year, so why is he an improvement?
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BTW - Fuentes isn't any better than romero this year, so why is he an improvement?
Depth.
do we have another left handed reliever?
(that kid they called up from the minors that throws a fast ball about 75 mph doesn't count).
I'd have interest in Fuentes, but probably not for what it would cost to give up.
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I'd have interest in Fuentes, but probably not for what it would cost to give up.
I'd rather go after another scrap heap arm like romero worked out last year :)
Fuentes value is just nuts and I was just saying, if he was jc romero who was on four teams last year that they were talkinga bout trading for (with the same numbers on the rockies) people just wouldn't like it, they are remembering what fuentes was, briefly, and not recalling that relievers are fungible more often than not...
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they are remembering what fuentes was, briefly, and not recalling that relievers are fungible more often than not...
Fuentes is having a good year. It's not like he's not producing. But I agree his stock is way, way too high.
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Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.
Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs.
How is it independent? If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected. If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.
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Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.
Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs.
How is it independent? If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected. If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.
Park Factor has been in place for quite a few years and is accepted by a large majority of people who work on things like this as being a good and fair way to compare the different benefits or deficiencies batters get at different parks.
Park Factor indicates that CBP is NOT as much of a band box as - and that Coors is much more batter friendly than CBP.
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How is it independent? If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected. If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.
PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
It's total runs, not just your runs.
For example, let's go by averages. Let's assume a team (both pitching and hitting) scores the same amount at home as on the road.
Every game of the year, they lose 7-5. They give up 2 home runs, only get 1.
((1 + 2)/(81) / ((1 + 2)/(82)
=
(3/81)/(3/81)
= 1.0
The fact the teams pitching staff stinks has no correlation to the park factor, because (presumably) the same stink rotten pitching staff is increasing the road runs per game as well.
Now, if the team has an away pitching staff and a home pitching staff, that would throw things for a loop. I don't recall the rockies employing that method though :)
If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected. If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.
This is exactly what Park Factor is meant to work against. It's also part of the reason I think CBP has been labeled a hitters park (we've had great hitters, which generally lead the league in runs scored, playing there 81 games per year the past few years, and horrible pitching staffs, which creates the illusion that it's the park, and not the hitters and pitchers, scoring the runs).
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I disagree. Yes, Matt Holliday has been much better in Coors that anywhere else, but he'd go from Coors to possibly an even better hitters park.
What!?!?!?
This myth that Citizens Bank Park is one of the top hitters parks has got to stop.
First, ESPN's park factor. Updated daily.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
The stat is defined on the page. Citizens Bank Park is a middle of the pack pitchers ballpark. It's actually in the lower half of the league (16 out of 30) in terms of hitters parks. A better pitchers park than hitters park!
(last year Citizens Bank Park was 14th out of 30).
Ok, need more evidence? Let's look at individual players. If Citizens Bank Park is such a great hitters park, it would make sense that our starting pitchers have a better ERA on the road, and our hitters have better numbers at home:
Hamels: 2.79 ERA at home, 3.53 on the road.
Myers: 3.81 at home, 8.18 on the road
Kendrick: 4.69 at home, 5.02 on the road.
Eaton does have a higher ERA at home, but he actually gives up more home runs on the road than at home (1 hr every 11.5 IP at home, 1 home run every 6 on the road.
Batters (home run rate):
Howard: 1 hr every 12.2 at bats at home, 1 every 13 at bats on the road.
Burrell: 1 hr every 20.8 at bats at home, 1 every 9.2 on the road
Utley: 1 every 11 at bats at home, 1 every 23 on the road (for what it's worth, Utley does have a higher OPS on the road).
There is no evidence to point to Citizens Bank Park to be one of the top hitters parks in the game. It actually looks fairly well balanced. 3 of our starting 5 gives up less runs at home than on the road. Of our big 3 hitters, 1 hits pretty much the same amount of home runs at home vs on the road (Howard), one hits considerably more on the road (Burrell), and one hits considerably more at home (Utley).
I would say CBP favors left handed pull hitters with a short porch in right field, but pretty unforgiving in left and center (which becomes even more troublesome for the right handed hitting Holliday). It was a slight hitters park the first season, but the changes have leveled it out to where it's about average. There's no way you can argue that CBP is anywhere near the hitters haven Coors field is, which has been a hitters park since its exception with (2nd in park factor in 2001, 1st in 2002, 4th in 2003, 1st in 2004, 1st in 2005, 2nd in 2006, 3rd in 2007, 6th in 2008.
Seriously, there's just no way.
in '04 - 5th best park for HR's
in '05 - 2nd best park for HR's
in '06 - 6th best park for HR's
in '07 - 1st in HR's
in '08 - #'s down but still 12th
Power wise, this is one of the most favorable parks in the majors and that's a fact.
In run production, in those same years, we have been 12th, 2nd, 8th, 14th and 16th. When you talk about runs, there a lot more factors that dictate that. P staffs, lineups, etc. With HR's that really takes out many of the other factors and is just individual batter vs. individual P
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In run production, in those same years, we have been 12th, 2nd, 8th, 14th and 16th. When you talk about runs, there a lot more factors that dictate that. P staffs, lineups, etc. With HR's that really takes out many of the other factors and is just individual batter vs. individual P
Please re-read my post. Park Factor/runs has nothing to do with pitching staffs and lineups. It's a much better indicator than solely home runs.
Also, compare who has benefited. Howard has 79 home runs at home, 79 home runs on the road for his career. Since 2004, Burrell has 70 at home, 72 on the road. Guys like Utley are the ones benefiting. Dead pull left handed hitters. Not power right handers, or guys like Howard who go to center and opposite field quite a bit. Hollidays a right handed hitter. If you look at the splits of our right handed power hitters, they do not benefit.
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Don't need Fuentes, once Myers sucks again as a starter his home will become the 8th inning and we call up Happ or Carasco to take a spot in the rotation. Holiday's splits away from Coors have always scared me. He is overvalued, mainly a Coors creation.
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In run production, in those same years, we have been 12th, 2nd, 8th, 14th and 16th. When you talk about runs, there a lot more factors that dictate that. P staffs, lineups, etc. With HR's that really takes out many of the other factors and is just individual batter vs. individual P
Please re-read my post. Park Factor/runs has nothing to do with pitching staffs and lineups. It's a much better indicator than solely home runs.
Also, compare who has benefited. Howard has 79 home runs at home, 79 home runs on the road for his career. Since 2004, Burrell has 70 at home, 72 on the road. Guys like Utley are the ones benefiting. Dead pull left handed hitters. Not power right handers, or guys like Howard who go to center and opposite field quite a bit. Hollidays a right handed hitter. If you look at the splits of our right handed power hitters, they do not benefit.
I'm tired so maybe I'm misunderstanding this, but let me ask this...
If you take Coors numbers on park factor, a lot of the favorable #'s could be attributed to the fact that they play the majority of their road games in seriously favorable pitcher parks (SD, LAD, ARI, SF). Would than not make Coors run production look extreemly favorable? Also, those are parks that Holliday has struggled pretty bad with in his career, thus impacting his splits more than other players.
Also, maybe his disparity is more due to the comfort of playing at home (more a mental thing). Who's to say he would not adopt CBP like that? I serioulsy think some people focus on #'s too much. Holliday is a great hitter...I don't care where's he's hitting, he's better than our options like Burrell, Jenkins, Taguchi, Werth, etc.
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If you take Coors numbers on park factor, a lot of the favorable #'s could be attributed to the fact that they play the majority of their road games in seriously favorable pitcher parks (SD, LAD, ARI, SF)
Ari, SF, and LAD really aren't huge pitchers parks. Arizona is actually a very good hitters park. Sf and lad are about league average. Petco's the only hugely favorable pitchers park.
Holliday is a great hitter...I don't care where's he's hitting, he's better than our options like Burrell, Jenkins, Taguchi, Werth, etc.
He is better than those guys, but not worth the cost of upgrade (both in terms of salary, which would then cost us players currently on our roster, and in terms of prospects).
I guess we'll just have to disagree. I don't see Holliday sustaining his success when moving away from Coors, and while he will still probably be productive, I don't think he's worth the cost. If I'm going to mortgage the farm (and Marson + Carrasco is trading our two best prospects IMO), I want to do it for pitching. If you make this move, you have absolutely nothing to use in future years should this not work out.
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Seems Jason Stark does not agree with most of the consensus on this board...even is ok with Blanton trade...
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=21637
Maybe it will work out for the Phils. But their chances for WS are not going to happen this year.
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What does Steve Philips think though?
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So
Blanton/Santana
Myers/Maine
Moyer/Perez
and ESPN tells me the phils have a pitching advantage in shea? Are you kidding me?
Oh yeah, Todd Zolecki openly compares Blanton to Eaton - woo hoo - mediocre 5th pitcher for mediocre 5th pitcher...thank god they gave up two of their best prospects for a fatter adam eaton
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Joe Blanton is awesome
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6 IP, 8 hits, 3 walks, 5 ER's, 1 k.
Helluva debut.
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And Ramon Castro just Tattooed the ball...after walking the previous hitter, on 4 pitches
However, since this team has seem to have forgotten that walks aren't evil (pedro feliz has contaminated this team as I knew he would...god damn you ed wade)...what's it matter if the offense stays dormant as it has the past couple weeks.
On the plus side, joe blanton isn't as far at jose mesa yet, but now he has easy access to cheese steaks
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The mets bull pen sucks
this doesn't change the fact that blanton stunk
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Thank heavens for the Mets.
BTW, are you sure that wasn't Eaton on the mound. I couldn't tell the difference.
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Thank heavens for the Mets.
BTW, are you sure that wasn't Eaton on the mound. I couldn't tell the difference.
BTW...you want to feel pain, check out Happs last two strats in AAA, he wasn't that bad and the phils would still have the prospects.
Thank heavens for the mets bullpen, wagners back spasms are helpful
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Saw the end of tonights Phils-Mets game.
Unreal.
5-2 Mets entering the 9th.
Johan Santana cannot catch a break with this Mets bullpen.
Is this a season changing game for the Phillies? ;)
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Only if they get to face the Mets bullpen sans closer every game
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This is pure curiosity. Anyone know if the Phils have an option for Benson for next year? Like a team option? Or does he have a player option?
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Brett Myers is broken
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There are reports that Happ could be on his way up. Our pitching is in shambles.
After Cole:
Myers- he is a mess. I am an optimistic person and hoped he could turn it around, but he is a mess and if he next couple starts are like his last one, they can't finish the season with him.
Blanton- Two starts. First one bad. Yesterday, two runs in two innings before rain delay.
Moyer- A 4 or 5 who is our 2 by default.
Kendrick- A 4 or 5 who is our 3 by default, and I believe he lost his last two starts.
I know Brett makes too much to be a relief pitcher, but could this be an option if his next two starts are a failure?
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I love the focus on the pitching, it distracts from the fact that the offense is basically in the toilet as well
This team is a mess
I know Brett makes too much to be a relief pitcher, but could this be an option if his next two starts are a failure?
Closers are relief pitchers to me...an inning is an inning
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I love the focus on the pitching, it distracts from the fact that the offense is basically in the toilet as well
We can only clean up one mess at a time. Nonetheless, even despite our recent problems, the offense is still 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and 6th during the month of July.
Meanwhile, since the All-Star break our pitching has given up 9, 3, 6, 6, 3, 8, 9, & 10 runs. Thats 6.75 runs per game over the last 8. It is difficult to win giving up that many runs.
While I agree that the offense has looked bad, starting pitching is the reason this team will struggle to win the division, as opposed to having a legit shot at contending.
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What I've heard:
The team has had enough of Ryan Howard. They've tried to build their identity as a group of guys that really work hard, and his work ethic isn't really up to par. He's pretty much bought into the idea that he's leaving when his arbitration years are up. When guys like Utley and Rollins are trying to be leaders, he's not really on board.
This shouldn't excuse Rollins for all of his issues this, but I think his frustration with a situation like this could be adding to what ails him.
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And where did you hear this?
This would just demonstrate the phillies idiocy, and they might as well trade Howard now, because if they don't want him, someone will...he'd make a great DH in the AL....
The phillies are just terrible
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The phillies are just terrible
It is tough watching a team with a young ace, the last two MVP's, and one of the best players in the league in Utley, just waste these guys away.
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The team is built around offense and not pitching. Unless you are willing to have a top 3 payrole, you don't build sustained success by building a power team.
I don't blame them for developing good home grown power hitters like Howard, but they should be looking to build around pitching and contact hitters. Power hitters cost too much for this type of team.
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By "the team" I meant the players.
The idiocy of this ownership group is well documented.
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Yes, it's very simple to build around pitching, that's why so many teams do it.
A. You won't pay over slot
B. Your scouting system is 20 years (at least) behind the times
C. Your international scouting sucks
D. Your minor league system is terrible
Hard to build around pitching that way
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The team is built around offense and not pitching. Unless you are willing to have a top 3 payrole, you don't build sustained success by building a power team.
I don't blame them for developing good home grown power hitters like Howard, but they should be looking to build around pitching and contact hitters. Power hitters cost too much for this type of team.
This may not even be realistic, but would you prefer signing Howard at his 10 or 15 million per season or just trying to get a Sheets or Sabathia or one of whoever the top free-agent pitchers are?
It seems to me from watching the playoffs every year that we would likely be more successful swapping Howard for an ace.
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This may not even be realistic, but would you prefer signing Howard at his 10 or 15 million per season or just trying to get a Sheets or Sabathia or one of whoever the top free-agent pitchers are?
I'd rather get a sheets or sabathia, i'd rather the phils revamp their minors and get better coaches in their, how come gavin floyd can suddenly pitch when he's gone from philadelphia? Maybe they actually worked with the kid in the off season?
The foible that is common in baseball seems to be buiilding around 'park strength' which helps every tema, i think it's better to build around a park weakness....everyone will 'benefit' from the 'launching pad' (real or not) but if you build a pitching staff strong enough to maintain in that park (GROUND BALL PITCHERS) you get the advantage
It seems to me from watching the playoffs every year that we would likely be more successful swapping Howard for an ace.
Well yeah, but it wouldn't happen...Ryan Howard is basically a DH, a pretty good DH, but a DH who 'strikes out too much', and for people that still matters, and it's easier to find a home run hitter who can barely field than an ace pitcher...remember, the red sox basically took david ortiz off the scrap heap from the twins....top line pitching is MUCH harder to get/develop than a poor fielding home run hitter...
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Quick off-topic question.
Willie Mays Hayes. Hits like Mays, runs like Hayes.
Who is Hayes? I doubt its Von.
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This guy?
http://www.runningpast.com/johnny_hayes.htm
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This guy?
http://www.runningpast.com/johnny_hayes.htm
Thanks, I didn't think it was Von. :)
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I don't know for sure it's this guy i just googled 'famous runner hayes' and he's the first guy who came up :)
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Quick off-topic question.
Willie Mays Hayes. Hits like Mays, runs like Hayes.
Who is Hayes? I doubt its Von.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFc7OHAB84w
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One of the worst sequels ever....until Major leage 3
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Phillies And Marlins In Manny Hunt
30th July, 2008 - 3:33 pm
SI.com - The Phillies and Marlins are two of a few teams engaged in trade talks regarding embattled superstar Manny Ramirez, SI.com has learned. The Dodgers also showed interest in Ramirez, but they appear to be less involved than those other two National League teams now.
Ramirez has publicly expressed a desire to be traded, and it is believed he'd approve a deal to at least Philadelphia, and perhaps Florida and Los Angeles, as well. [READ]
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I love when sports illustrated is so behind the curve...pat gillick has already shot that deal down :)
The other rumor mahay for donald sucks a lot too...JUST PUT DONALD AT THIRD you morons
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I might cancel my season tickets if they make the donald trade. Well, not literally cancel, but not renew next year. That would be horrible. Typical of Pat Gillick during his last years with a club, but horrible nonetheless.
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Fortunately, the rumor mill indicates that those negotiations are actually moving farther apart...i should have bookmarked that quote from earlier this season, soneone did a chat, i think amaro, and basically said they wouldn't even think about moving donald to 3rd cause they just don't think he's that type of guy (paraphrasing)
Which i found BEFUDDLING after the nunez/bell/feliz years...i mean jesus...donald might be the best 3rd base prospect in the phils system SINCE scott rolen
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I really hope Peter Gammons is wrong cause if the marlins get manny ramirez but don't have to pay him any actual money directly i'll be pissed
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Manny Ramirez traded but not to the marlins, nor did they get jason bay
excellent
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Shane Victorino is the Sam Dalembert of the Phillies - both get by purely on physical tools without any real idea of how to play their respective sports.
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Shane Victorino is the Sam Dalembert of the Phillies - both get by purely on physical tools without any real idea of how to play their respective sports.
Yeah, not even close
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I do have to agree that Shane's fundamentals (particularly base running) are somewhat lacking.
and a .341 career OBP is not getting it done for a guy with limited power.
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I do have to agree that Shane's fundamentals (particularly base running) are somewhat lacking.
and a .341 career OBP is not getting it done for a guy with limited power.
His base running have improved dramatically over just the beginning of last year, he's gotten much better on the base paths, and as a right fielder he was one of the best defensively with a great arm, they forced him to move to center.
Sam on the other hand still seems like basketball is a novel concept to him, at least to me.
Oh yeah, Shane isn't grossly over paid for his production, he's a rule V pick who grossly over performs what was expected of him.
I feel it's a stretch to say sam plays to the level of his contract
but whatever, some people just want to find someone to complain about on the phillies...myers is getting his crap back together, howard is playing better, chase utley seems immune from criticism, so i guess shane is next?
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and a .341 career OBP is not getting it done for a guy with limited power.
Everyone can't be superstars. He gives you league average hitting at a light hitting position plus he'll steal some bases at a decent rate. I'm fine with him.
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His base running have improved dramatically over just the beginning of last year
based on what metrics? Stolen base %, sure, he's a great base stealer. but his fundamentals on the base path, I feel, are still very poor.
Oh yeah, Shane isn't grossly over paid for his production, he's a rule V pick who grossly over performs what was expected of him.
I feel it's a stretch to say sam plays to the level of his contract
Didn't you just argue with Iguodala that we should be upset with management, not the player?
I mean, like just last week?
You're the most contradicting poster I've ever seen.
(I'm sure you'll come up with an example on why it's a different situation. You always do, to save face)
but whatever, some people just want to find someone to complain about on the phillies...myers is getting his crap back together, howard is playing better, chase utley seems immune from criticism, so i guess shane is next?
Seriously, this is coming from you? You're complaining about being people being overly negative?
I'm not saying Shane blows and needs to go, but I am saying that Shane seems to make a lot of mistakes on the base paths. I guess that's no longer allowed. I will make sure not to say anything negative anymore around jemagee.
kumbaya
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This dodgers series is just distressing
And Joe Blanton shows his true colors
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Nothing like the Pads to cure what ails a team. :D
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Except when, you know, it doesn't.
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Cured their 7 of 10 including a 4 straight losing streak.
As for "curing" their season, the Phils do not play the Pads 162 times.
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hey Phillies,
I see where Jim Thome just went yard again to give the White Sox a walk off win.
You can pen him in for 35/100 after he left the Phillies.
In retrospect, what is your take on the trade for Aaron Rowand and ???? Did Philly get enough for him?
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Did the DH suddenly get instituted in the National League?
Did Ryan Howard suck the past few years and produce less than Jim Thome at a much more affordable rate?
Did Aaron Rowand play well for the phillies and get some nice FA compensation when the giants GROSSLY over paid him?
The Jim Thome signing was a mistake when it happened because the phillies weren't close to competing (and it required the addition of david bell)...the phillies did a fine job shedding him.
Phillies minor league pitching development is piss poor, at best...
In retrospect, the GM at the time was a moron and made probably one of the best trades of his career.
If you really want to bait people, question the abreu lidle trade in which the phillies got jack fracked and didn't spend the one year savings money on anything worth noting.
Or talk about gavin floyd and how suddenly away from the horrible minor league pitching developers the phils have he's blossomed pretty well.
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Thanks FRAN*.
I don't really follow the Phillies and was merely asking to be informed.
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You...not informed on something? Shocking news.
In other news, the mets bullpen is truly horrid
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That was a pretty crazy win last night. I seem to recall the Mets bullpen blowing the first game of a series against us in New York last month but they bounced back strong and took the next 2. I think it would be huge if the Kendrick and the Phils can win tonight.
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You...not informed on something? Shocking news.
Not really. Things that you would be attatched to, identify with and be much more "informed" on. :D
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2937948
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The Coste guard was working hard last night.
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You...not informed on something? Shocking news.
Not really. Things that you would be attatched to, identify with and be much more "informed" on. :D
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2937948
Good lord, are you really that pathetic?
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Can both of you take the belittling somewhere else please?
The rest of us don't really care about the two of you calling each other pathetic.
Take it via PM.
thanks.
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The Phils can thank Milwaukees manager for spoon feeding the Mets tonight.
Gagne inserted with a 2-1 lead going into the 8th ???
Ballgame. 4-2.
While Gagne has sort of turned it around, not really. No way do i trust him in a big game and esp with a 2-1 lead in the 8th.
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No shame in the split vs Mets, Philies.
I consider Johan Santana to be this years NL Cy Young deserving winner.
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Phils took two out of 3.
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Billy Wagner probably out until the 2010 season
God I love that deal the mets signed him to
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Done
Done
D
O
N
E
DONE
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Nice timing. The invoice for my playoff tickets was due on the 12th. At least now I have a good indication of whether or not that would actually be necessary.
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Schedules remaining:
Sweet schedule for the Phils if they can knock off Milwaukee.
Atlanta X6
Florida and Washington X3 ea.
Wow!
Mets have same cushy schedule so as for Wildcard, I'd watch out for Houston. They also have a nice schedule and have been on a roll since late July. Best record since late July i think. .750
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The phils don't have the pitching rotation to make it to the playoffs, they only have 3 pitchers worth running out there every five days, then kyle kendrick and fat joe
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^^ naw. Don't count out the Mets bullpen. In fact the Phils should send them a thank you note.
Blown yet another Johan Santana beauty today. He left them up 2-0 into the 8th. Bring on the implosion.
3-2 loss.
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And Fat Joe is having another awesome day...the pitcher is actually worse than the rapper
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Have to admit it is impressive seeing the Phils go for a potential 4 game sweep on the road. I realize that the Brewers are struggling, but you sttill have to go out and perform.
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Have to admit it is impressive seeing the Phils go for a potential 4 game sweep on the road. I realize that the Brewers are struggling, but you sttill have to go out and perform.
How impressive is it that they are going for a 4 game sweep at home?
I feel like pacino in god father 3...they pull me back in.
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I just came back to fix my post, but you caught it first. :-[
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Congrats to Myers. He really has stepped up and turned it around this year. can't imagine him doing any better in a big game- esp on only 3 days rest.
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I feel like pacino in god father 3...they pull me back in.
Dang you, I was just thinking that as I opened up this thread.
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Another thank you note to the Mets bullpen, Phillies.
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Time for the Phillies to run with the success and not shit the bed this week.
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Time for the Phillies to run with the success and ...
Not sure I would put it that way...:) But I am with you. btw if the Phillies don't make the playoffs shouldn't they fire Charlie?
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Why?
I'm not a huge Charlie Manuel fan but tell me why it would be his fault that
A. The back end of the pitching staff was terrible
B. Myers crapped the bed the first half of the season
C. Ryan Howard seems to have forgotten all the progress he made in his plate approach and the balls at his ankles
D. Injured players
E. Pat Gillick can't get a single 3rd baseman that doesn't suck or a starting right fielder who is good against both side of the plate.
Manuel has managed the phils as best he can with the pieces given him and the phils have the best bullpen in the national league with scrap heap names (or maybe that just means bull pens are fungible)?
The only moves I ever question are the 'defensive substitutions' of pat burrell, i think they are asinine (considering the giant fielding MESS at first base) to do every damn time, especially if the phils are behind, or tied, but in general their impact on the game is negligible.
My feeling is that whatever is wrong with the phillies (and there are things wrong) is higher up than the manager, it's organizational
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Jason Werth now has 22 HR's and a .881 OPS. His OPS against right handers is now at .779. that's certainly not great, but i'm not overly concerned about right field right now.
I also don't think we've been overly injured, and Ryan Howard's had a heckuva year, despite his "regression".
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Jason Werth now has 22 HR's and a .881 OPS. His OPS against right handers is now at .779. that's certainly not great, but i'm not overly concerned about right field right now.
Werth is one of those highly touted but oft injured guys, it's why the Dodgers let him go so easily, his injury history...not a guy i want to count on.
This off season is just as huge as the last one in my opinion.
STILL need a 3rd baseman as far as i'm concerned, feliz blows and infects the rest of the team with stupid plate apporachitis...
What to do about pat who seems still viable, is he a more affordable 1st base option over the next two years since the phils seem unwilling to give ryan howard what he's asking for (and will any team really?) in long term salary...and as much as he's loved, Ryan Howard is easier to replace than any quality pitching the phils might be able to get for him from a pitching rich bat barren franchise (and again, the phils have to play to their weakness at their home stadium, not their strength)....how do you replace the back end of the rotation, eaton, kendrick and fat joe can't be part of the starting rotation next year...and at some point jamie moyer is just going to die on the field, i mean he's 130 by now right?
Ryan Howard has had a heckuva year in the counting stats that's very true, but his OPS against lefties is atrocious and regressed below both 2006 and 2007 numbers, his OBP is the worst of his career at this point and his OPS is also the worst number of his career...not what you want to see from a guy 'entering his prime' demanding 100+ million...
His home run rate is also down at the moment (HR/AB) from 2006 and 2007.
You expected a drop off from 2006 to 2007 cause it was momentous, but another drop off is a cause for concern, and this IS a drop off (though last year he actually struck out more times than he has this season in less at bats, but his walk rate is also down uncomfortably compared to last year)
Yes he has lots of home runs and lots of RBIs but he has not been as good as either of his two previous seasons, and since he got a late start in the league you have to wonder if he's peaked already.
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he had about the worst start to the year you could imagine. in 54 games since the all-star break he's hit one HR every 12 at-bats (his career average is one every 11.7 at bats), he has a .558 slugging (career average .586), and he's batting .262 (.278 career). He is walking less, but I'm not overly concerned. His performance since the all-star break has been about what I expect of him, and pretty close to what he did last year.
Arguing about whether you can rely on Jason Werth in future years is different than discussing the deficiencies in the team THIS year.
And if you're saying that Ryan Howard has regressed, how does that fall against upper management, and not in the purview of the coaches?
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And if you're saying that Ryan Howard has regressed, how does that fall against upper management, and not in the purview of the coaches?
Again, I'm pointing at the roster wide piss poor plate appearance that seems to have coincided with the signing of another mediocre BS 3rd baseman who thinks walks are a disease.
I don't hold Manuel responsible for Howards poor plate approach, because he should know better, and if the whole contract thing got in his head (which it probably did) that ain't Manuel's fault either.
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And if you're saying that Ryan Howard has regressed, how does that fall against upper management, and not in the purview of the coaches?
Again, I'm pointing at the roster wide piss poor plate appearance that seems to have coincided with the signing of another mediocre BS 3rd baseman who thinks walks are a disease.
I don't hold Manuel responsible for Howards poor plate approach, because he should know better, and if the whole contract thing got in his head (which it probably did) that ain't Manuel's fault either.
I would have agreed with you on Howard before his torrid September, but if the Phillies win the NL East he needs to be the MVP. He is the best power hitter in the game and has become Mr. September. Poor approach at the plate has been going on much longer than this year and IMHO is absolutely the Manager's issue. I guess we just disagree. But it drives me crazy also.
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He only deserves the MVP if you over value the HR and the RBI (which it sounds like you do) and if you ignore Albert Pujols and feel that MVP only should be won by someone who makes the playoffs or iks close to the playoffs.
I would have agreed with you on Howard before his torrid September,
Less than 20 days could be called small sample size in terms of the entire season.
So what the hell did the brewers do today?
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Oops he did it again....:)
I think Milwaukee did what many investors are doing. PANIC PANIC PANIC! Ryan Howard did it again! I am a big fan of Bill James et al. Isn't a HR the best thing that can happen during an at bat? RBI's are a two way street. You need someone to get on base and someone to knock them home.
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There's a lot more to it than what you just said, Home runs are very nice but they need to be taken in context of the players entire performance.
I read a blog that had an interesting take on the melvin firing. They viewed it purely as an 'excuse' firing for the Brewers who know they are going to miss (and according to the numbers have a better record than they should) the playoffs, but now they've 'made a change' to show the fans they are trying, thus maintaining interest for the last two weeks AND for next year...it's as plausible (and dumb) as firing your manager with 2 weeks to go for any other reason i've heard
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There's a lot more to it than what you just said, Home runs are very nice but they need to be taken in context of the players entire performance.
Howard's top 5 in mlb in OBI% as well.
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I never said howard wasn't having a good season i said that he's regressed the past two seasons from the season previous...and it's a disturbing trend....and he's having an out of control september / 2nd half of the season, it doesn't erase the first half of the season and the piss poor performance at the start of it...which means if he starts out similarly next season, he'll be booed mercilessly and i'll still have concerns about his 100 million dollar efficacy.
He's currently mashing left handers in a way that's totally out of control and not maintainable...he's on a hot streak, they don't last, and cold streaks happen as well...it's why you should look at the entirety of the season and the entirety of the body of work instead of selectively looking at things....unless you're a member of the BBWAA of course
The phils REALLY need to win the divsion btw - if it works out as I expect it, it's the difference between the dodgers and the cubs in the first round...whichever round the phils play the cubs i don't see them beating them (barring massive pitching injuries to the cubs)...getting through a round would be nice
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Agree 100% on winning the division. I agree you have to take the whole season into account but that's pretty good if he finishes out well. If Howard was going down hill I would see him limping through September, not dominating the league.
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Agree 100% on winning the division. I agree you have to take the whole season into account but that's pretty good if he finishes out well. If Howard was going down hill I would see him limping through September, not dominating the league.
Unless it carries over to next april/may/june it's nothing more than a hot streak
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Cover those tats, Myers. :D
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Phils-Marlins-add-gamesmanship-to-pennant-race?urn=mlb,109239
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Agree 100% on winning the division. I agree you have to take the whole season into account but that's pretty good if he finishes out well. If Howard was going down hill I would see him limping through September, not dominating the league.
Unless it carries over to next april/may/june it's nothing more than a hot streak
More like regression to the norm.
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More like regression to the norm.
Meaning his 2006 AND 2007 seasons were above the norm?
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More like regression to the norm.
Meaning his 2006 AND 2007 seasons were above the norm?
Meaning that his start of 2008 was so far against the norm that a similar hotstreak was bound to follow, and that his early season struggles is no more a basis for predicting his future performance than his current hotstreak is sustainable in future years.
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So - did you buy the playoff tickets or not?
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Yeah, I did.
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Excellent, not just pray for a divsion win, cause beating the dodgers and then losing to the cubs is much better than losing to the cubs :)
I know I said i wouldn't do it anymore - but this one was too juicy to pass up (i'm one who believes he IS a good GM when the steinbrenners don't interfere and that Santana would NOT make the yankees a playoff team this year)
Brian Cashman (New York): : What should I spend my 80 million dollars on in the not so distant off-season?
Buster Olney: Brian: Is that how much the Phillies have to spend this off-season/
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Rumor floating around the SNY broadcast that the Mets have given Omar Minaya a four year contract extension.
That's AWESOME
for teams who compete against the Mets
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Last nights game was disheartening, shame for the offense to waste a good performance from Hamels AND lose ground to both the Mets and Brewers
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MVP for the Phils is?:
Ryan Howard
Jamie Moyer
The Mets bullpen
Mets mngr putting in Luis Ayala again. ???
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Chase Utley
And he was the MVP of the league last year if he didn't injure his hand
The best 2nd baseman overall in todays baseball
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Brad Lidge. Without a doubt. What's the Phillies record when leading after 8? Yeah.
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No closer can/should ever win mvp, team or league. A guy who comes into a game for one inning when the team is already winning is never more valuable than a great positional player, or even a great starter.
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There's an argument to be made that Brad Lidge should be considered for comeback player of the year after he was considered done in houston and coming into Philadelphia which as we know is the hardest place for any pitcher in the entire universe to pitch what with the homer heaviness of the park and the fact that the fans are all spawned by satan and steve bartman.
Chase Utley is the MVP of this team most years.
And Ryan Howard probably has a 50/50 shot of playing for another team next year.
And I think Matt Cain would make a fine addition :)
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Sigh
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If the brewers get the WC and the phils win the division - Phils would play the brewers right?
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If the brewers get the WC and the phils win the division - Phils would play the brewers right?
Yes
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So now I don't have to root for the Mets to avoid the cubs.
Excellent