09/10 Free Agents

[jemagee]

For those who don't mind long term thinking

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10

[TheGuiltyParty]

Ahhh... I just wrote a post about this sort of thing. In the summer of 2010 you could see LeBron, Wade, Nowitzki, Bosh, Amare, McGrady, Josh Howard, Jefferson, Redd, Tyson Chandler, and WILLIE GREEN.

That's a huge market and enough reason for teams like the Nets and Knicks to try and clear space for that summer. If we're going to go ahead and sign a D-List free agent this summer, I would be more inclined to overpay them in order to get them to sign a 2 year deal instead of paying them market price for 3 years. The question really becomes, can the Sixers actually lure any of these guys in 2010? All of them would be UNRESTRICTED free agents so we wouldn't have to worry about their current team matching... but would they leave where they are for Philly when you have a bigger market like New York (and Brooklyn) ready to throw money at them???

Here's my quick breakdown:
LeBron: He's most likely going to Brooklyn... if not, I think he stays in Cleveland
Wade: I think he stays in Miami but there's a slim chance he leaves for the Knicks or Brooklyn if they don't get LeBron
Nowitzki: He most likely stays in Dallas but if he leaves, I think a domino effect begins to happen.
Bosh: Probably stays in Canada but if Dallas has open cap space, I could see him heading home. Miami could make some sense as well since they should have room to re-sign Wade and bring in another player.
Amare: He loves Phoenix and owns a really popular restaurant there. At this point, Nash is probably gone, Shaq is gone, and Hill is gone. The team would be Amare's and they should have some space to sign a free agent away from another club but I could see a situation where Amare goes elsewhere.
Chandler: He's obviously blossomed playing with Chris Paul and so I don't think he would leave New Orleans (or Seattle if the Hornets move there) but he might be able to be had with enough money.
McGrady: Getting older and his body in two years will probably be breaking down even more. I'm not that interested but I could see him pulling a KG and wanting to go someplace where there are other stars that might help him win... or at least get out of the first round.
Redd, Jefferson, Howard: These guys aren't franchise players but they are stars. I could see any of them switching clubs but are they worth planning two years in advance to get???

******
If we are able to establish ourselves as a playoff team over the next two years, perhaps one of these big guns looks at Philly and determines that they could put us over the top but I just don't see that happening when you have big market teams like New York and Brooklyn out there along with beautiful places to live teams like Miami and Phoenix.

Basically... we're doomed one way or the other. :-)

[tk76-]

I don't see us landing one of the big names in '10.  I do think having so many big names will increase overall movement- especially of high paid older vets as teams try to jettison salary to open up their cap for the bigger name FA's.

Best case,  Iguodala, Speights, Young and Lou are all good players (not to mention Smith, Carney and whoever we add this year as role players.)  Best case scenario we could be only one good vet away from making a serious run.  All of the player movement in summer '10 could allow the Sixers to pick up that last piece.

[TheGuiltyParty]

Actually... here's a weird thought... because there are so many big names available the summer of '10, having cap space next summer could be extremely valuable. I imagine you will see a decent number of teams holding firesales next summer up through the trade deadline. The Nets and Knicks appear to already be doing so but I believe there will be some decent players and draft picks acquired for nothing more than cap space.

[Skates]

Actually... here's a weird thought... because there are so many big names available the summer of '10, having cap space next summer could be extremely valuable. I imagine you will see a decent number of teams holding firesales next summer up through the trade deadline. The Nets and Knicks appear to already be doing so but I believe there will be some decent players and draft picks acquired for nothing more than cap space.

Exactly.  At the deadline next year and next summer bargain shopping for pricey veterans (yeah, I realize I said pricey bargains, that's the NBA for you) asset wise should be in vogue for teams that can absorb salary or trade expiring contracts.  Having a good, rising team at that point with cap space/expirings will be the best way to take advantage of that market, hopefully that will include us in some way.

[jemagee]

I actually think expiring deals in the 10 season will be the most valuable as they have been in the longest while.

Shame the sixers won't have any big ones

[johnny broad-street]

Hopefully Ed is thinking this way as well, and ill get is shape for that type of market by the time it rolls around

[jemagee]

My only hope is that Ed has a plan to build a title contending team and not just a one and done team like the decline and fall of the iverson era

[johnny broad-street]

Yeah man. I would hope the ownership would be pushing for that same result.

[TheGuiltyParty]

I actually think expiring deals in the 10 season will be the most valuable as they have been in the longest while.

Shame the sixers won't have any big ones

What's the rule on Bird Rights?? Is it that a player has to be with the same team for 2 years or 3 years? I think it's 3 but I'm just looking to double-check this. Either way, if we strike out with the big fish this summer (Brand and Smith), I think Ed should only be looking to sign these other clowns to a 3 year deal at the max and preferably a 2 year deal.  By no means should he be offering Maggette or Kristic or Childress 5 year contracts. If he could get away with overpaying them to only take a 2 year deal, I would be all over it since it would open up a ton more possibilities.

[johnny broad-street]

That is where bad GMs screw it up for everybody. You have to hope nobody is stupid enough to sign them to a deal like that because then the opportunity doesn't even exist to add them. True, it's their problem at that point, but if a guy can help you for the right price, it's a shame to lose them

[TheGuiltyParty]

That is where bad GMs screw it up for everybody. You have to hope nobody is stupid enough to sign them to a deal like that because then the opportunity doesn't even exist to add them. True, it's their problem at that point, but if a guy can help you for the right price, it's a shame to lose them

Nobody is stupid to sign them to what deal? A 5 year contract or a larger 2 year deal?? I think 3 is the magic number although it throws off the chance to have a large expiring deal when everyone is going to want them.

[johnny broad-street]

Sorry....that was a very disorganize dpost by me. I meant a longer deal. Because as you said, you don't want to be stuck with them for 5 or so....but theyd be ok for 2 or 3. So some goof signs them to 5 and they've outpriced the market.

[TheGuiltyParty]

Sorry....that was a very disorganize dpost by me. I meant a longer deal. Because as you said, you don't want to be stuck with them for 5 or so....but theyd be ok for 2 or 3. So some goof signs them to 5 and they've outpriced the market.

I think a 3 year deal makes a lot of sense. If all Maggette or Childress are being offered on the market are max MLE deals, then I believe the offer would be for 5 years and $33MIL. If that's the case, I would offer them 3 year deals somewhere between $21 and $25MIL. Obviously the shorter the contract, the better it is for the team but for them... they're not getting the big paydays they want with the MLE so this would enable them to hit the market again while making a good chunk of change and allow the Sixers to gain their Bird Rights so that if needbe, a sign and trade can be done.

I would not offer 4 years or beyond to anyone other than Smith, Brand, or Gordon.

[johnny broad-street]

Additionally, if they're getting paid and becoming FAs sooner, they'd want to maximize thier time and really play for that next deal. No time for complacency