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PhillyArena Community => General Discussion => Topic started by: rickortreat on December 01, 2009, 03:37:46 PM
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The trend is quite strong, and so far appears sustainable on a percentage basis. Mining stock valuations are lagging, but the short interest there will be under siege shortly if it isn't already. Supplies in the market aren't available for delivery and this forces the price up when delivery is demanded. When the comex can't produce the gold, the only supply is from working mines.
All of the adds on TV asking people to turn in their gold are all you need to know that they think the price is going to continue to go up. I wonder how many suckers are cashing in now at a discount, not understanding it's the best performing asset they own.
My current price target is close to $1350 but I don't know when it will occur. This is based on a technical head and shoulder formation in Gold's price. Currently Gold is in an overbought state, but this occurs in bull markets. It appears that a recent correction has cleared the way for a continued rise which means the price is still accelerating. We are at 1196 now, and have been as high as 1199 today. There should be some hesitation here, as there often is at round numbers signifying new highs, but this may only serve to fuel the rally. Markets are orderly until they are not. I'm not to confident about the stability in this environment. In reality the proverbial shit has hit the fan, and the markets are slowly waking up to that reality. Lots of valuations are in serious trouble and there's no sign of an equilibrium, that is demand relative to supply in housing, goods and services.
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No hesitation at the 1200 level at all, in the evening today the price is $1223.10. This is indicative of a lot of fear and uncertainty in the markets- valuations of many things are under question, since the basis for them is people with money to buy them and without jobs many of them are becoming poor. Even the ones who are normally wealthy who provide professional services are dependent on the health of the general economy, and the housing glut has put pressure on rental rates for apartments as well as home resales.
The trend continues to be strong and shows no sign of letting up. Whenever a market builds up like this it accelerates to higher and higher price gains until it blows off. Had to say where it will stop though, watch for it to get steeper on a chart first, and when it fails the most vertical trend line take your profits.
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You did predict this looooooooooooooong before all these gold commercials popped up and people started saying this. For that, I will give you props sir!
At the same time I will kick myself in the rear for not listening last year when you started talking about this.
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You did predict this looooooooooooooong before all these gold commercials popped up and people started saying this. For that, I will give you props sir!
At the same time I will kick myself in the rear for not listening last year when you started talking about this.
I am just a piker compared with Jim Sinclair and Martin Armstrong. IF you do anything today, google Armstrong and read his latest article on Gold. His stuff is on SCRIBD, and after joining for free, I was able to download the PDF's.
There were somethings about Gold that I was wrong about, like thinking it was a hedge against inflation- it is not. The stock market is the place to be in inflationary times. Gold is what to be in when you think you're government is loosing control. Thank heavens there are straight shooters like Armstrong out there!
In the meantime Gold is below 1,100 again. This is a period of weakness for the metal. My best guess is that we've already tested the bottom, at about $1078, but there is no defining trend that says buy right now. Technically, we are at a support level, but it isn't clear if we get a bounce up from here or not. For a long term play, buying now should be safe, but there is no rush. It may be that we need some exogenous event to get things rolling again. Europe and the US are in a serious recession, and they are not doing anything to alter their path. Without cooperation from all major tradeing nations, no necessary changes will be made.
Obama does seem to have lost patience with Gartner, and is now bringing back Paul Volker. At least Volker has some experience and understanding, and he is no longer with the Wall Street crowd. This means he can actually champion sound legislation that will get the banks under control. But Congress is still very much in the pockets of the money boys, which means that nothing will change until they are afraid more of loosing their jobs than pissing off their friends. As of right now, Banks involved with the real economy are in serious trouble and many of them are holding non-performing mortgages. They have changed the accounting rules so these loans are still valued at par, even though they will never be paid. This is fraud, except that they've now made it legal. This is how in bed they are at this point! Very disconcerting behavior indeed! Something is very wrong with the system and it is not getting better.
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Gold is still being hammered down here. It was broken down to a new interim low at the 1060 level. From a technical perspective the current trend is still down, which is creating a great buying opportunity.
The first rule of trading is to never try to catch a falling knife- which is what the price of gold is now. If you are in, don't curse me or be angry- I assure you that it will eventually go up and go much higher than it has ever been. In either case, it's best to wait until a bottom is established.
This is a market being driven by emotion and greed, and stocked by programmed trading, but none of this is necessarily reflective of the underlying trends. When the Dollar goes down Gold goes up. They keep printing more dollars, but they are finding less gold. China and India understand these trends and when they buy, they will be buying for value. Right now they are waiting while the market foolishly discounts price. That is the smart thing to do. I don't know if this is the bottom, it will only be known after it happens. But it's not necessary to buy at the bottom, just closer to it than the top. Gold stocks are really dragging bottom now too, (not surprisingly) this is the time to accumulate cash and wait for the right time to buy......
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I think the bottom is finally in, as the metal moved up sharply today. Everything is in the Dollar, and the Dollar market is not being driven by logic. The market oscillates about the true fair price, sometimes higher and sometimes lower. All indications are that now is the time to buy as a key level was retested.
At the same time, momentum upward is not really present in the market, not after just one day. It remains to be seen if we get a strong move upwards, or a slow climb.
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When I do these posts, I should put in the current Gold price and time so you can see from post to post whether what I'm predicting is correct or not. Now, Gold is at $1100 again, up from the bottom put in last week. My post was on the Ninth, which turned out as I suspected was the bottom $1060. At the time, I wasn't sure how strong the recovery would be, but a $40 rise in 4 days is a pretty good indication.
There is still active manipulation in the gold market, there are those who short it and play the downside for profit, and there are people short of gold who need a market to sell in. There are also Central Bankers wanting to preserve the illusion that their currency is safe.
Those favoring the downside are the big money people and the government. Only those who want to preserve their wealth and gain some protection buy gold. Keep in mind that while demand is high, mine production is down, and there are no new mines of scale coming on-line. One of the things that makes Gold valuable is that it is rare. As scarcity increases, so will the price.
Keep in mind the fundamentals. The dollar and the US economy. As long as we continue to lose jobs and tax revenue, the dollar situation will get worse. Long term that is what will keep pushing gold upwards. Silver too.
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Time for another update, Gold is at 1101.30 now, and it had gone higher earlier, above 1120 before being forced down. The demand is clearly there and the price was gaining momentum, which must have scared the crap out of Central Bankers everywhere.
What did the trick this time was the International Monetary Fund announcing that it was going to sell 191.3 Tons of gold on the open market.
The first thing you need to understand is that the IMF is not permitted to sell this gold on the open market. So the story is an out and out lie. The second thing is that the announcement came late today as Gold was starting to rise in earnest.
Back in the late 70's the IMF played the same game. And that was when the price rose above $800 for the first time. Gordon Brown, now PM of the UK. Was England's head of their Bank a few years ago and announced that England was going to sell it's gold. All this did was ensure that they got the lowest possible price for it. He sold it all at around $300 an ounce! What a complete imbecile, and an apparent repudiation of Democracy: Who would vote for a man like that?
This time around, the buyers of the Gold will be India and China who are adding to their reserves. They can see well enough to know what is coming- the collapse of the Euro and the Dollar. In both places, public debt is soaring and the ability to pay the debt - ratio of debt to GDP is getting way out of line. Their is a big fight in Euroland of whether to support Greece, which is the currency in play now. The Dutch voted to not help them at all, and the Germans aren't thrilled with the idea either. Either Greece will be kicked out of the EU or the EU will support it. Politically this will not be popular.
In the US the same thing may eventually happen as a number of states are overextended, especially, but not exclusively California. Now the US is not going to kick California out, the US government will find a way to keep the state going, but people in other states aren't going to like the idea of subsidizing California's fiscal irresponsibility!
All you need to know is that Gold will be weak for a little while longer and THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY!!!!! While prices are still being pushed down. Tomorrow or the next day or two will be the window. Martin Armstrong has a price target of $5000 per Oz. in a few years.
I'm not saying Martin is right. As far as I know no one knows the future and if they do, they aren't telling us the secret! What I do know is that debt to GDP is rising in a number of places and these places will be subjects to attacks on their currency. The US isn't first in line, but after Greece and a few others it will be the US's turn. Make sure you get in now, before that happens!
Blatant manipulation of the price of gold and lies from Government entities like the IMF show that we're reaching a new phase in the Gold market. The fundamentals are all against the currencies and in favor of Gold, what else can they do but try to b.s. the people? Don't be a sucker!
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The IMF announcement achieved nothing for those intending to push Gold down. Back up to 1117.2 now.
I read an article on the Spider funds, SLV and GLD, which are offered as a way to speculate in Gold and Silver. However, upon a review of their prospectus, it is clear that the SEC has not validated these funds as being legitimate. Another problem and this is the more serious one: the funds are offered by Goldman Sachs and HSBC, both of whom are active in the metals market as short sellers. If you are buying Gold as a means to protect yourself, why would you do business with an entity that is on the opposite side of the market from you? At the very least there is a conflict of interest.
Another problem is that there is no solid evidence indicating that they actually have the Gold and Silver on hand, meaning the funds are not fully backed by Gold and Silver.
I suggest that you stay away from these funds, as they are sponsored by enemies of the rise in price. I find it very suspicious that entities which are known to have very large short positions are also running the funds.
Get the metal itself or good gold stocks, which should move up strongly as the price of the metal moves up. Chances are the stocks will go higher on a percentage basis, but that will only get you more dollars. Only the actual metal itself, in your possession gives you another means to acquire that you need through trade.
Make sure that your purchases are from reputable dealers and are easily identifiable as gold or silver. Just because you have an ingot that says it is gold, doesn't necessarily mean that it is so! If it has a stamp from a reputable supplier like Johnson Matthey, or coins previously in circulation like US silver coins, then you are assured of reasonable assurance that you have what you thought you were buying. It is expensive to assay these metals, and no one will accept an item in trade without evidence that it really is what it is being represented as.
As gold becomes more valuable, fraud becomes more profitable and therefore worth the risk! Caveat Emptor.
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Gold is still stuck below $1150 an Oz. That is current upward resistance and until it is broken by a close above that price, there is no guarantee that Gold will reassert itself. It is a good time to accumulate as the time for a new uptrend is starting to approach and once the price takes off this level should be gone for good.
The Price is now $1136 and people seem tolerant of the Dollar. I'm still betting on the dollar declining, and I will be surprised if things don't break soon. The economy is still in serious trouble and so is housing. Until jobs turn around there will continue to be downward pressure on home prices.
Everything is still about the US dollar and other currencies, all who have similar problems in so far as debt to GDP is concerned. Iceland collapsed and now Greece is in the spotlight. The Dollar is still perceived as a safe haven in spite of California's troubles. I think that it's current uptrend is over, but like Gold the USD is in a trading range and moving inversely. Until the index breaks down below .78 there's no reason to think Gold will take off.
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Gold knocked on the door today and did get above $1150. but fell back before the close. AS it is key resistance even when Gold goes above it, it will likely retest this price level again, so you have some time. A breakout above $1150 will be playable for call options on selected Gold stocks, which respond to movements in the POG. It will be interesting to see where the breakout goes as there is still the previous high of $1230 to be taken out.
The Dollar was up today as well, which is why I'm not sold on a Gold breakout just yet. There is a serious disconnect between reality and what goes on in the markets. There is a sea-change going on with the US and Europe being diminished and the far East and S. America gaining economic and political clout. This is starting to be reflected in the markets but not to the extent that it should be. The ability for the US investor to get into foreign markets directly is very important, as is the understanding of the laws and regulations in those countries.
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Today we saw Gold take out $1150 and at noon it is $1162. Next apparent resistance is at $1230. The real comedy is on CSPAN, where the special Congressianal fiance committee is questioning Reich about his time at Citi, along with one of the other Executives there. Greenspan was also tesitifying and all of them claimed that they couldn't forsee anything going wrong with their banks or the way they were doing business, implying that the AAA bond rating on these Credit Default Obligations told them their moves were safe and correct.
Nothing could be further from the truth! Anyone with some understanding of finance and accounting and the interaction of free markets and monetary creation, would have known that they had gamed the financial system to facilitate speculation, as opposed to actual productive efforts.
Jim Sinclair warned people over 10years ago about this nonsense, and I did my own research and came to the same conclusion. These guys at City and Lehman and all these other places cannot be that dumb. Sinclair isn't smarter than they are, and neither am I. To suggest that they didn't know or understand the financial peril their policies put us in is pure garbage. If everything is based on real estate, and services, and there is a reliance on outsiders for material goods a country will become poorer as time goes on. To keep the game going they have created the illusion of prosperity through the use of inflation. We all had more money and prices kept going up in housing, which works fine as long as housing is expanding. But housing can't keep expanding unless there are people with steady jobs to pay a mortgage!
This is Econ 101, and these guys say they didn't see it coming! The Citi VP testified that he was paid a lot of stock as compensation for his work at Citi and hadn't sold a share. He told them the price had gone from $50 to $1.00 a share. Don't try to tell me that he didn't write call options on those shares or buy put positions for protection!
This is a real joke and it's on us, telling us they don't know why this happened and that they are not culpable. The banks are still writing these special performance contracts, and not lending to the real economy. The Fed is supporting or at least abetting their activities. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. They don't see or understand or admit the real problem, and until they do, this isn't going to get fixed.
This is why I trust gold. Monetary soundness is based on the integrity of the issuer of currency. These financial guru's are incompetent or deliberate crooks, and they control the value of the US currency by deciding how much or how little to expand the money supply. They aren't doing it from savings, but from borrowing and creation out of thin air. It is very difficult now to have faith in the US government or it's ability to turn this situation around. The republicans who facilitated most of this are completely clueless, and the Democrats as a whole don't seems to understand the problems. Health care for everyone provided by the government is not necessarily a good idea. IT would be better if everyone had a job and could pay for their own health and take responsibility for it! If the government facilitated the supply of doctors and regulated private insurance costs could be kept reasonable.
When certain groups are insulated from the general economy by their compensation, government workers are at an advantage. This is going to piss off everyone else who has to pay taxes to pay these people when all their other neighbors are out of work!
I am surprised that there isn't more anger out here, directed towards those who screwed things up so badly. I suppose the problem is most people aren't smart enough to understand who did this to us. Besides killing Greenspan now would serve no purpose. He shouldn't have been put in charge in the first place!
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Well the big news yesterday came form Europe where the EU agreed to bail out Greece to keep it from defaulting. Why people think this is a good thing for the Euro, I'll never understand but for a short time at least the Euro went up on the News.
The Dollar has been on an uptrend since December, but this appears to have run it's course and a new downtrend appears to be taking hold. Gold was very strong last night and must have panicked the gold shorts in London and NY when it hit 1170. The price has been run all the way back down to 1149.30, but I expect buyers will come into the market on any small set-backs like this as long as the dollar continues to fall.
As far as I know everyone on this board is from the US. The World price Gold in Dollars and as long as that is the case there is a strong long-term correlation between their relative values.
Understand that there are long term trend driven by fundamentals, and short term market trends that are driven by participants backing their positions with money or selling out on those positions to capture profit. The long-term trend always dominates the market, but over the course of a few days, weeks or months there can be a counter-trend.
The real art of trading is to know when the big moves are about to take place and to position oneself accordingly. Even though Gold is in a long-term uptrend, if you just buy a Gold mutual fund or a stock and hold it, you won't see it pay off for quite a while. This is because during this long term uptrend, Gold goes through corrections where the price gains are tested. This happens in every bull market and is normal and healthy, and it also presents huge opportunities for the nimble.
Right now we are price discovery is trying to find out how low the price of Gold will go. This is sort of absurd as the dollar is in the start of a decline, but this illustrates how players in a market can dominate the trading, in effect moving the price by continually selling overwhelming the buyers. Short term movements are about who blinks first, that is who is more willing to accept some short-term loss to their position. Weak hands always get shaken out and the big money knows this. The big money is on the short side, but they do this to accumulate from buy and hold investors. At certain price levels these boyz will make their stand and jam the market down. They have to, because they know that by doing this they are suppressing Golds tendency to rise they create a situation where buying pressure based on the fundamentals just builds and builds. When that occurs they get out of the way or rather buy on the way up, encouraging the price to go higher so they can tap out the buyers and cap the price to scalp the weak hands once again.
This is just a short-term battle in a series between gold bulls and bears, but this one should create the right buying opportunity to capture profit from an upcoming rise back over $1200.
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Friday April 16th, the price was driven all the way down below 1135 before coming back to close at 1136.80. The upward resistance at about $1175 is proving to be well defended at all costs and it looks like it will take something else to fuel a push over this level. The Dollar did have a good day Friday, but anyone looking at a chart knows that the downtrend in the dollar has started, and lower prices are coming.
The SEC lawsuit against Goldman may be the tip of the iceberg that will sink Wall Street. Go to jsmineset for the list of charges, which if true will open a floodgate of potential litigation. It's a matter of representation and disclosure things a vendor of a financial instrument is obligated to provide. IT isn't reasonable to try to get people to invest in a derivative product based on mortgage backed securities when they are selected by someone knowledgeable in them, but is selecting the ones most likely to fail and is taking a large short position on the very same things you are recommending to people as a good investment!
Who would knowingly do business with crooks like that? Investors lost about $1Billion on these, and the Firm that had the short position made that money and put it in their pocket.
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April 22nd, the gold market is almost motionless. Every evening it goes up in overseas trading and as soon as London opens they start banging it down again. As I said earlier we are in a trading range with the lower end in the 1130's and the upper end 1175. The big fireworks should come soon, but right now I'm just waiting.
The managed perceptions of the economy are causing people to think things are ok, or that we have turned the corner. We have not. The structural problems of the real economy are still present. The average American is poorer, if he owned a home it's worth less and it harder to sell and he may even be upside down on the loan. That ain't going to change until the economy starts creating real jobs. And people were taking out loans on them to finance their lifestyle may find themselves in foreclosure. Mortgages were always a big part of Wall Street, but there's something wrong when the focus is on houses. It should be about productive businesses, and this is more a problem of trade policy as opposed to bank regulation. Banks will try to do what they can to make money, but they won't risk financing businesses in an environment like this. Without jobs tax revenues are down which means the govt. is taking in less and less, which means the dollar is going to go down.
Gold is still a no-brainer. But the big money won't be made until we clear 1175.
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Friday April 30th- Gold is now at 1179.3 and has been a bit higher this AM. From a Technical analysis perspective this is significant as the price has breached the upper level of the trading range it's been in since the price collapse after 1230 which was reached in the beginning Dec. 09.
There may be some slight resistance at this 1180 level, but if so, I would expect it to be slight. The next price target is the old $1230 level and up and away from there.
The Congressional examination of Goldman and their defense is very interesting, and the moves to restrain the non-standard derivatives is a good move, but it does nothing about the existing derivatives on the books that have caused all the problems! The real story is now southern Europe where Greece's financial problems are now causing investors to look askance at Italy, Spain and Portugal.
The Euro is under serious pressure here, so you won't see a weaker dollar at this time. Gold however is reacting to the increased likelihood of hyperinflation, as all of the Western economies have a very high debt level relative to GDP and the situation is NOT improving.
Gold is not something that can be manufactured, only realized by honest labor. It's actual scarcity and it's unique qualities separate it from other stores of wealth. It is expensive and somewhat risky to store, and mining stocks should do very well as the POG rises. Even the old-line producers who had sold gold forward have now settled these trades and are now positioned to profit from Gold's rise.
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May 11th. As expected in my last post 1232.30 is the current price and the first target on the way up. Since it rose nearly 430 today and this is the point of the previous high, we may see some slight hesitation at this price before moving higher. The current uptrend is quite strong, however, powered as much by the Euro's decline as anything else. Europeans are getting anxious about their money very rapidly and while many still see the Dollar as the best of what's left, a lot of them aren't buying that story either.
Gold is still a no brainer here, we are in a bull market and a major move up.
Nothing has changed enough to alter Gold's trajectory upwards on a fundamental basis. The US economy is not doing well, the number of available homes continues to rise and not enough jobs have been created to save the housing market. State budgets are under enormous financial pressure, and it isn't just California that is having problems. New Jersey might be just as bad. You can think of these economies as being akin to Greece as it is to the EU. The EU will have to bail out Greece or say goodbye to the Euro, And the US govt. will have to bail out the states.
Housing has crashed and it's now taking out local banks and undermining the tax base. The best governments are the ones that will reduce spending as much as possible, as the ones with the lowest tax burdens will be the best places to be, all else being equal. It's a good thing that America is the land of plenty and food is relatively cheap. I see no reason to be optimistic that things will change around for business. Wall Street is still playing it's games and unless Govt. makes some of these things illegal, they will destroy the world economic system. That 1,000 point collapse occurred last week still has not been explained, as there was no apparent seminal cause. All this tells you is that we have hyperactive computer models making the decisions and following the trend. The problem is, it's all herd behavior with no respect for actual value, this means the computers are more apt to get valuations way wrong, on a short-term basis. Everyone is doing technical analysis, without understanding anything about the underlying businesses, that's like flying on instruments alone and not looking out the cockpit window! Computers can execute orders faster, but they can't out-think reality.
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May 19th. So much for the uptrend! But do not be concerned if you have bought in. In reality nothing has changed, the Euro is still in trouble and the dollar only looks good by comparison. The bottom line is all these countries are running a deficit and tax revenues aren't covering the debt, which means the countries are printing money that is worth less and less. The world economy actually appears to be rolling over as oil is down along with coppper. A recession is not going to help matters, but this appears to be the current trajectory.
All this ties in neatly with my last post about the markets. The hedge funds are all computer model driven and when certain criteria are met they decide to sell, this is what has happened with Gold. It was getting a bit overbought at 1250, but not so much as to justify a dive bellow 1200. People who have been in gold a long time have seen this all before. Sometimes the damage is significant enough to derail the bulls, but the uptrend in Gold and the causes behind it's rise are still acting in the opposite direction. Part of the problem is that the buyers wanting gold to rise are pussies and the establishment which wants to cap the price and pretend currencies are still worth more than the paper they are printed on are fearless. All that needs to happen is that the buyers of those future contracts take delivery and the game is over. When they sell like this, it's a buying opportunity! It is a mortal lock that gold will go higher in under these economic conditions. It is the effect of a failing economic/political system. The failure is the cause.
But as a trader there is an old saying, don't try to catch a falling knife! So you wait for the trend to change from it's current downward path. When it gets oversold enough the hedge's will start buying again.
Gold peaked the morning after I made my last post on 5/11. Since then it has been in a downward trend that has broken through all sorts of support. Gold stocks have given up most of the gains they made over the past two to three months. Right now puts are profitable, but you have to watch as now on a short term basis we are waaay oversold. Somewhere there will be a bottom and the bears will have to cover or get gored. The price is now 1193.80 this should be the last chance to buy Gold below 1200.
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June 4. Gold managed to get back over $1200 again, but it is effectively stuck, unable to acquire the momentum necessary to take out the old high, put in last November.
Do not be concerned by this at all, as all the fundamental aspects for a strong rise in Gold are all in place. Is the European debt situation getting any better? NO! Is the US growing again? NO!
When Gold got close to it's former top price, sell orders came in. The hedge funds are at it again trying to call the top and chase the weak hands out of their positions. The US Dollar only looks good because of the Euro, but the truth is both currencies are based on excessive debt which cannot be serviced as it is far beyond the countries' current GDP's. Markets can get out of balance one way or the other based on the herd following the trend.
Most of the hedge funds use trading programs, which of course embrace Technical Analysis. But TA is not predictive of the future, it is merely a tool for following trends and an objective guide to buy and sell. There are short-term trends and long term ones, of course and the dominant theme in Gold is still up and will continue to be, and the dominant theme for currencies in Europe and the US is down.
Right now the short term trend is to stay in this range, which means not a lot of opportunities for a trader. Patience is a virtue here, while waiting for the players in the market to wake up to the reality of the situation.
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Gold got perky today, June 7. It was up over $1240 today before falling back, the top of the range that's been established. Watch carefully here, because this is the line in the sand in Dollar terms for Gold. If you were holding Euro's that battle is already over, Gold is establishing new historical highs there.
There is no guarantee that Gold will go higher here, but my instincts tell me that the demand is too much for the bears to try shorting here. Gold should now start taking off on it's way to the $1600 price level. That does mean dollar inflation folks, so get ready.
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June 18. Gold got up to 1260 earlier today before falling back to 1257.90. Summertime is historically weak for gold, which is part of the jewelry cycle. Gold, however, is now trading as a currency and a store of value, since neither the Euro or the US dollar has any credibility that they are.
$1600 probably before the end of this year. Nothing has changed, the economy is a long way from recovering and Europe is in real trouble. The big secret is that US states are in a similar debt situation and are crying to Uncle Sam.
These governments are out of control, as they insist on spending what they don't have to satisfy special interests. The consequence of spending without revenue is a growth in the money supply in excess of value being created. AKA inflation.
Until now, the US has enjoyed the cover of Europe's bad news. Currency traders will start taking shots at the Dollar before long.