Author Topic: The 2009 Draft Analysis  (Read 6141 times)

Offline Skandery

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The 2009 Draft Analysis
« on: October 26, 2009, 04:27:56 PM »
I'll be going in order of selection for the analyses.  Once again a bunch of saavy picks, some ridiculous reaches, and some out-n-out robberies from those that supposedly number among our most pious of brethren.  I'm hoping your pasteur emphasizes that most basic of commandments "Thou Shalt Not Steal!", Ted.  :D

Westside Warriors (computer #1--show up next time 'koast!) --

Keepers:  Bynum + Wade 
Steal:  J. Richardson (#49)
Bum Pick:  M. Bibby (#73)

'Koast didn't have any egregiously bad picks, but then the computer rarely makes horrible picks.  He got the highly O-ranked players that most passed on due to situation or injury (Jamal Crawford, Francisco Garcia, Kevin Love).  This team did however WIN the LeBron sweepstakes and that's the sort of player that can single-handedly make you relevant.  I think Crawford and Bibby vulture each other's value, while Garcia is going to be out a long while.  The team has good balance, from the keepers on down the roster.  Richardson should light it up in Gentry's return of Phoenix to the Run-N-Fun system.  If K. Love comes back soon, Brand has a renaissance and 'Koast actually participates.  Who knows?  This could the Warriors 1st playoff appearance.  Prediction--Borderline Playoff.  Draft Grade: B

Derek's Team

Keepers: Kevin Martin + Devin Harris
Steal:  David Lee (#50)
Bum Pick:  Louis Williams (#98)

Derek had himself a fantastic draft making the most out of his position.  He started with some great guards and so I was surprised when he took Kobe (another guard), I personally would have gone with Dirk but Derek is the only guy with 2 championships so who am I to argue.  David Lee was the player I hated letting go in the 4th round, and Derek un-apologetically stole him with pick #50.  This was also, in my estimation the Steal of the Draft.  Lee is in a contract year and is a nightly double-double with 55% FG shooting and steals.  I predict 19/12 with fantastic percentages for Lee this year (awesome at Center).  I'm not high on Louis Williams, who is essentially scoring and not much else.  Upside of Randolph is tempting and Derek reaped value with J. Smith (#47), J. Howard (#95), and B. Miller (#119).  This is a championship contending roster that's pretty much strong across the board.  Draft Grade: A-

Genghis' Polar Bears

Keepers:  Antawn Jamison + Manu Ginobili
Steal:  Jason Thompson (#94)
Bum Pick: Zach Randolph (#75)

Joe was another guy that used his draft position wisely to steal some great players.  Picking 3rd, he chose the Diggler (Points, Rebounds, 3s, Percentages, FTM, and LOW LOW TOs) a fantasy dream come true pretty much.  He then chose players that bolster his team's strength (Okur, Ray Allen, and Mike Miller).  I didn't like the Randolph pick because his #s have receded lately and you just don't know exactly what is going to happen with Memphis.  I just don't see Gay, Mayo, Gasol, and Conley being stunted to the point of Randolph having incredible Pts/Rebs numbers.  And he needs to have incredible Pts/Rebs because all he really gives you is those two categories + FTM/FT%.  His asst/stl/blk totals are anemic, and he has ridiculously high TO for a big man.  So 13 and 7 is much suckier for Randolph than say, Rasheed Wallace.  Joe was smart with the picks though and got some solid players (Westbrook, Battier, Grant Hill, and Chalmers).  I'm expecting Thompson to improve upon a solid rookie campaign and really come into his own: 20/20 games like he just had in pre-season are going to happen this season.  Strong roster that has many categories pretty much locked up at the expense of losing a few.  Draft Grade: A

Ted's Bricklayers

Keepers:  Chris Bosh + Gerald Wallace
Steal:  Luol Deng (#93)
Bum Pick:  Al Thornton (#117)

Solid set of keepers and balanced roster.  A roster of PGs and Centers: that is the mix you want in a roster.  Unexpectedly Ted passed on Deron Williams to get Amare, screwing my chance for Amare and he had to gamble on Arenas at PG.  He bolstered Arenas with solid guys in Mo Williams and A. Miller.  Good young SG in Eric Gordon and a nice flyer in Frye.  McGrady is a headache to own and Dunleavy could be out for an extended period of time.  If Deng is healthy, then that'll be a complete steal at #93.  I don't think much of Noah, but he could surprise.  Thornton is nothing but scoring and the Clippers forward situation is crowded.  If Thornton doesn't get opportunity to put up shots, then he's pretty much a waste of a draft pick.  Unless Ted finds ways to royally screw this up, this team is in the playoffs.  Draft Grade: B+

Basketball Journey

Keepers:  LaMarcus Aldridge + Kevin Durant
Steal: Trevor Ariza (#116)
Bum Pick:  Spencer Hawes (#68)

Journey joined me in full membership of the Fraternal Order of the REACH!!  Griffin (#44), Hawes, C. Lee (#77), Morrow (#101).  One after the other, his arm was aching with mercy after just a couple of rounds.  Now its not that I dislike any of those players with the exception of Hawes, I just though they could have been had a round later, some of them 2 rounds later.  Westphal recently said he may go with Hawes off the bench to provide the 2nd unit with some firepower, I don't like hearing that for fantasy purposes.  On the plus side though, he did get Griffin and the all the upside that comes with him.  Plus he got a Grade A certified stud in Durant.  Ariza is very under-appreciated and if his production tracks with his minutes in Houston, you're looking at one, RIDICULOUS steal.  His SF only status was why I shyed away from him.  I also like the Augustin pick late.  Still a-lot of these unproven guys are going to have to come through pretty big for Journey to compete.  Draft Grade: C

Wolverine's Reds

Keepers:  Danny Granger + David West
Steal: Ronnie Brewer (#126)
Bum Pick: Allen Iverson (#102)

Caleb got his wish and got his TIMMAAAY!!  Duncan is as solid as fantasy players come, you always have that small whisper in the back of your mind going, "where exactly is that wall" but I don't think it'll be this year.  Down the line Caleb made saavy selections Derrick Rose (#43), B. Davis (#54), J. Terry (#67), Oden (#91), etc.  Oden has been a beast in the pre-season and I see huge things in store.  Terry is EVERY year a very underrated fantasy commodity.  Rose is probably the player I should have gone with instead of Rondo.  Brewer is scoring and most importantly Steals galore--he's the late draft pick that will single-handedly win you the Steals category and his FG% is fantastic for a guard.  I also love the solid pick in Perkins in the last round.  Anytime you get a year-round roster player in the last round of the draft, you're doing something very right.  The bad news though is I don't like Iverson, he has all the same issues that Randolph has only those problems are magnified.  I think Caleb will be disappointed in some of the talent he let go to get Iverson.  Diaw has upside but not at where Caleb chose him, he'll have to produce to justify the Round 7 pick.  I also think Prince and Chandler are solid but boring.  I especially worry about how Prince handles the addition of Villanueva and Gordon to the roster.  This roster is balanced, strong, and has no glaring weaknesses.  With the health of Granger and Duncan, you may be looking at a champion.  Draft Grade: A-

Stay Tuned for the second bracket.  The Playoff Bracket SAPS who had to make due.   




               






























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Offline Joe Vancil

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2009, 07:55:44 AM »
I'm hoping your pasteur emphasizes that most basic of commandments "Thou Shalt Not Steal!", Ted.  :D

Ted, you better inform him that that 10 Commandments stuff cuts both ways.  After all, there's also "Thou shalt not covet" out there!
Joe

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jemagee

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2009, 09:35:25 AM »
Quote
On the plus side though, he did get Griffin and the all the upside that comes with him

SIgh


Offline Ted

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2009, 09:42:52 AM »
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4597949

That's a damn shame. Nobody wins when something unfortunate like this happens.

Well . . . I guess except for fantasy owners of Al Thornton.

Skander, care to re-evaluate that pick? 8)
"You take him Perk!" ~Kevin Garnett

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Offline WayOutWest

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2009, 12:04:37 PM »
As the only REAL Clippers fan on this board I am truely saddened but not even close to suprised.  When discussing the draft around the water cooler at work, we all agreed that the only thing that could keep Griffin from becoming a star would be if he was drafted by the Clippers.
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Offline westkoast

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2009, 12:56:09 PM »
I guess i'd apologize for not making it had I not had something more pressing to take care of.  A number of those picks were planned.  I wanted Elton Brand and Yi.  After seeing Yi in the pre-season scouting around other teams I decided I wanted him.   Plus everyone knew why I went after the first pick when I had my choice, I wanted Lebron.  My thinking was Lebron + Wade/Bynum would be a strong enough force to keep me competitive.  With Brand and Yi able to shore up my starting PF spot.

I haven't fully gone over everyone elses picks to be honest.  Been out of town with little to no internet connection for the past week.
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Offline cudall

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2009, 12:03:58 PM »
Skander -- when's the rest of your analysis coming?

Joe, will you please do you power ranking magic thingy this year?


Offline Skandery

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2009, 06:06:54 PM »
Sorry guys, with school and job, I really don't have the freedom to post on here as much as I want.  And although I should be studying physiology right now, I can't keep my fans waiting any longer.  Without further ado, the rest of the analysis . . .

. . . I will analyze these players based on my thoughts and information after the draft and what I knew then.  If I use any regular season insight I'll be sure to use brackets.

Columbia Penguins

Keepers:  Jason Kidd, Caron Butler
Steal:  Andris Biedrins (#55)
Bum Pick:  Jonny Flynn (#114)

Tim took great pleasure in using his pick before me to not only insert the dagger straight into my heart but giving it a healthy twist . . . or two.  I thought he had a very good draft.  There are more balanced teams out there, but not many with as good a mix of value and upside.  Kevin Garnett will have reduced value because they brought it Rasheed Wallace for a reason, but he'll still contribute across the board.  Biedrins was the pick that sank my heart, another underrated fantasy commodity (FG%, rebounds, blocks, and he doesn't throw the ball away).  He also doesn't take enough free throws for his percentage to really hurt you, but will be good for double figure scoring [Nellie is his coach, though].  I don't like Jonny Flynn at #114, I don't think they signed Ramon Sessions for nothing and if anything Flynn and Sessions will vulture each other's value.  Then again Tim did handcuff with Sessions, so he knows what he's doing.  No mistakes in the mid-round picks (although I don't really like Villanueva) and one incredible pick with T.J. Ford as low as #103.  I think Jennings has the chance to be special and love that DeRozan has a starting gig.  Fantastic team and if the young guns pan out, Tim might be in line to defend his championship.  Grade:  A-

Archangel United

Keepers:  Andre Iguodala, Paul Pierce
Steal:  Leandro Barbosa (#80)
Bum Pick:  Nene Hilario (#56)

The Reaching started right after the keeper rounds and (save for a minor break in Round 7-I took Barbosa with good value) continued through Round 9.  I reached for Lopez (prolly should've gone Lewis/Murphy/Anthony/Lee etc.), I reached for Rondo (prolly should've gone Rose/Lee/Okur etc.), panicked with Hilario, reached for Parker, reached for Thad Young, at which point in time my arm flew off its socket with Tyreke Evans.  The ONLY player I wanted was David Lee---if I didn't get David Lee the draft was an utter and complete FAILURE!!  Well I didn't get David Lee [and so far Boy am I sorry!!!] Before the draft started I came to the unnerving conclusion that I had to pass on Lee in order to secure the PG I wanted (Rondo).  I just couldn't imagine Rondo being there for me in Round 5.  Tim then stole Biedrins from me and between Bargnani (who burned me before), Hilario (whose burned Ted like 5 times), and Horford (who I just find boring) I became the new Ted.  Tyreke was just plain fear of someone else taking him, I just had to guarantee that Evans was on my roster (I loved teeing off a bunch of people with it, too).   There was a statistical method to the madness that went with reaching for Lopez and Rondo and let's just it's going to have to come to fruition for this not to be a disasterous year; especially since I don't have vaunted keepers in Iguodala (who I love) and Pierce (who I don't like).  The only good thing about my draft, I took players I specifically wanted.  Draft Grade:  C+ 

Jerry Lewis

Keepers:  Jose Calderon + Marcus Camby
Steal:  Carmelo Anthony (#40)
Bum Pick:  Stephen Jackson (#57)

Ole' Jerry Lewis doesn't have world-beaters as keepers but they do provide a nice mix across the board.  I thought the draft started off very strong with Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony (who might be a genuine steal as long as he keeps up Ast/Stl contributions)[btw, he is going far beyond my expectations and I already had considered him a steal].  Then around the mid-rounds, Jerry started to lose me.  I think Jackson has mental issues and is making a bad situation, I think Turkoglu is overrated at Round 6, and there were better options than Millsap at Round 7. (especially if they don't get rid of Boozer), then J.R. Smith (another talented head case) hasn't really shown he is much more than an offensive spark plug off the bench and that was Round 8.  To get Kaman at #105 and Bogut at #112 is really solid.  I don't think much of either player (b/c of injury concerns) but Jerry really got both players at value.  I also like the pick of Randy Foye (#129) who is a lock for being a rotation contributor in Washington, I think he'll end up starting at the 2 with Miller backing up the 2/3 spot, while D. Stevenson will be the odd man out.  I think on the overall there are some situational and injury concerns with this Roster.  Good health and solid contributions from the bigs will decide the fate of the team.  Draft Grade:  B-

Wiener Wunder 09 (Computer #2-show up next time, so that some of those good players would drop :D)

Keepers:  Brandon Roy + Dwight Howard
Steal:  Wilson Chandler (#106)
Bum Pick:  Michael Redd (#58)

Another player who missed the draft which comes with advantages AND disadvantages.  You can't really say that Wiener (aided by the computer) reached too badly for any players, but at the same time the roster is littered with players that makes you say to yourself "I just don't know".  After all there is a reason that Live drafters let some of these players drop.  Steve Nash is fantastic and while age always hovers over as an omni-present concern (like Duncan), you just can't go wrong with Nash.  Marion should be good but Dallas is very crowded at Forward (Nowtizki, Howard, Gooden) and Shawn has been sliding since the move away from Phoenix.  Redd has injury concerns but could be fantastic value at #58.  Bargnani seemed to turn the corner in the 2nd half of last year, then again it was the 3rd time he seemed to have turned a corner.  Salmons will get run, but I'm just not a big fan.  Rasheed is always a good draft pick but boring.  Chandler was a STEAL, across the board production and plenty of Minutes in D'Antoni's fantasy friendly system, I think he's poised for a fantastic year.  Shaq won't hurt you at (#130) and may actually really help you, while Aaron Brooks should have been drafted well before (#154).  Brooks is a dime-a-dozen scoring PG (like Bibby, Crawford, L. Williams, E. House, N. Robinson, etc.) but he's going to get plenty of opportunity in Houston.  Solid Keepers, solid draft, but no WOW factor.  Draft Grade: B

Norwegian Fjords

Keepers:  Chris Paul + Carlos Boozer
Steal:  Luis Scola (#86)
Bum Pick:  Rudy Gay (#59)  [<--- I think I just hated all Memphis players]

When you get to keep Chris Paul, you own the most potent fantasy line on the planet.  That alone gives you the chance to compete.  Norwegian didn't make any mistakes, per se, but the upside (aside from Scola) is in short supply.  Johnson, Lewis, Gordon, Odom, Felton are all solid players but their ceilings are well established.  In fact some of those players find themselves in situations where they probably won't duplicate their best years.  Johnson + Lewis are great and there's not much downside.  Gordon, though, will have to find his place in Detroit, Odom is very crowded now with Artest/Bynum/Gasol and of course Kobe taking up opportunities, Felton has DJ Augustin breathing down his neck, etc.  The late round picks were ho-hum veterans like Rip Hamilton and Jermain O'Neal whose heyday may well have passed.  I thought Scola was an absolute steal at #86 (Round 8), and probably should've gone 10 picks earlier.  Without Yao Ming, Scola really has a chance to be a very efficient 18/10 and is C-eligible.  Rudy Gay will have to deal with the young guys who want there's (Mayo, Gasol, Thabeet) and now the old guys who want there's (Iverson and Randolph).  How much basketball is there to go around, really.  I think these tried+true veterans will have to reach back to more productive times for Norwegian to realize great success, then again he does have that Chris Paul!  Draft Grade:  B-

. . . (Last and most certainly Least!!) . . .

Basketball Jihad

Keepers: Al Jefferson and Pau Gasol
Steal: Emeka Okafor (#84)
Bum Pick: Corey Magette (#61)

Al Jefferson and Pau Gasol, two wonderful C-eligible players and Miguel gets to keep both.  Now some say that Jefferson has some injury concerns and Gasol has a crowded situation; my view is Jefferson will be just fine and I'll have to see Gasol be ineffective to believe it.  Miguel went on to employ a high-risk/sort of high reward draft strategy.  Ellis is a talent no question, but where does he fit in to that clusterfudge in GS.  Carter, a talent no question, but how does Orlando and continued aging treat him.  Mayo--my problems with Memphis players are now very well documented.  Miguel then started to sneak in some great draft picks, Okafor who is a fantastic addition to a roster with Al Jeff and P. Gasol.  R. Jefferson -- like Terry, like Wallace underrated every single year.  Kirilenko plays very well at #108 and he managed to pick upside guys in Curry (who I don't like) and Stuckey (who I very much like).   
Now this one thing must be mentioned: for as much as we give Ted unyielding guff for his lascivious lust for Nene Hilario, we never give Miguel near enough smack for his unbridled, unshakeable, Man-love for Corey Magette.  I believe Magette has been on Miguel's roster like 5 out of the 7 years we've been doing this shindig, mostly because Miguel will reach anywhere from 15-25 spots to draft him, annually.  Well this year Miguel took the cake (of course licking the icing off Maggette's lathered body), REACHING AN UNHEARD OF 64 SPOTS to draft the object of his man crush.   
Draft Grade -- C+  (Dropping a FULL letter grade on the Maggette pick alone)
« Last Edit: November 07, 2009, 06:12:49 PM by Skandery »
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Offline cudall

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2009, 11:14:12 AM »
Thanks, Skander. I'll take a B grade with an auto-pick draft . . .

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2009, 05:42:17 PM »
I'll be going in order of selection for the analyses.  Once again a bunch of saavy picks, some ridiculous reaches, and some out-n-out robberies from those that supposedly number among our most pious of brethren.  I'm hoping your pasteur emphasizes that most basic of commandments "Thou Shalt Not Steal!", Ted.  :D

Position vs Grade after 6 weeks

1 Jerry Lewis B-
2 Ted B+
3 Archie C+
4 Wovie A-
5 Weiner B
6 Jihad C+
7 Derek A
8 Fijords B-
9 Polars A
10 Penguins A-
11 Koast B
12 Journey C

How long before the A's start moving up and the C's start to sink.
"History shouldn't be a mystery"
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jemagee

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Re: The 2009 Draft Analysis
« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2009, 05:42:54 PM »
I'll be in last place most of the season,